Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 94W StormWatch No. 05

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 94W STORMWATCH NO. 05

Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Monday 24 June 2019
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT), Tuesday 25 June 2019
Current Status and Outlook Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 94W still somewhat disorganized while moving west-northwestward across the Central Philippine Sea. However in the next couple of days, it could turn into a short-lived Tropical Cyclone while turning sharply northward in the general direction of the Southern Islands of Japan. 

This LPA is not a threat to any part of the country. But there is a possibility that it may enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and bring occasional rains and thunderstorms across the western sections of the country within the next 2 to 3 days.

Where is LPA 94W? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, June 24…0900 GMT. The center was located over the northern edge of the Central Philippine Sea [near 17.5°N 127.5°E], about 582 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 603 km east-northeast of Casiguran, Aurora
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center…gustiness: 45 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 19 kph, towards the North Philippine Sea.
Forecast Highlights
  • This LPA is forecast to maintain its strength for the next 24 hours while over the Central Philippine Sea due to unfavorable upper-level winds (Moderate Vertical Wind Shear).
  • The Day 2 to 3 Forecast (Jun 26-27) shows LPA 94W recurving sharply towards the north-northeast in the general direction of the Southern Islands of Japan on Wednesday, with possible development into a Tropical Depression (TD). It may exit the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday as a Tropical Storm (TS).  Forecast confidence is now at MEDIUM (35-65% chance).
  • The presence of this weather system may enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and could bring occasional rains, some gusty winds and thunderstorms across the western sections of the country particularly Western Luzon including Metro Manila within the next 48 hours. The Multi-Model Rain Forecast continues to show this possibility to occur between Wednesday through Sunday  (June 26-30). Please be advised that severe thunderstorms may also occur across these areas which could cause flash floods and landslides. Precautionary measures must be implemented during the approach of these weather systems.
  • It will be named locally by PAGASA as “DODONG” if ever it becomes a Tropical Cyclone while inside the PAR.
  • The next StormWatch Update will be issued after 24 hours.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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