Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 94W StormWatch No. 03

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 94W STORMWATCH NO. 03

Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Saturday 22 June 2019
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT), Sunday 23 June 2019
Current Status and Outlook Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 94W remains weak and disorganized as it is about to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while accelerating west-northwestward towards the Central Philippine Sea. Majority of the Global Typhoon Models continues to show uncertainty on its strength and its possibility of attaining Tropical Depression (TD) status.

This LPA is still far to directly affect any part of the country. However, there is still a possibility that it may enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and bring occasional rains and thunderstorms across the western sections of the country sometime next week.

Where is LPA 94W? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, June 22…0900 GMT. The center was located entering the eastern border of the PAR [near 11.8°N 135.1°E], about 11 km east of PAR or 1,057 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center…gustiness: 45 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 28 kph, towards the Central Philippine Sea.
Forecast Highlights
  • This LPA is forecast to maintain its strength for the next 2-3 days while over the Central Philippine Sea due to unfavorable upper-level winds (Moderate Vertical Wind Shear).
  • The Day 4 to 5 Forecast (Jun 26-27) shows LPA 94W over the North Philippine Sea with high uncertainty on its possible strength, and could start to recurve towards the north in the general direction of the Southern Islands of Japan. Forecast confidence remains LOW (<35% chance).
  • The presence of this weather system may enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and could bring occasional rains, some gusty winds and thunderstorms across the western sections of the country particularly Western Luzon including Metro Manila sometime during the middle of next week. The Multi-Model Rain Forecast continues to show this possibility to occur between Wednesday through Sunday  (June 26-30). Please be advised that severe thunderstorms may also occur across these areas which could cause flash floods and landslides. Precautionary measures must be implemented during the approach of these weather systems.
  • It will be named locally by PAGASA as “DODONG” if ever it becomes a Tropical Cyclone while inside the PAR.
  • The next StormWatch Update will be issued after 24 hours.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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