Tropical Depression NIMFA Update No. 01





Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Wednesday, 18 September 2019
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday, 19 September 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression (TD) NIMFA has remained quasi-stationary over the North Philippine Sea during the past 20 hours, but has started moving very slowly northeastward.  Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 99W has dissipated while crossing Central Luzon, and its remnants has already been absorbed into Nimfa’s Trough.

24-hr Outlook: TD NIMFA is forecast to move north-northeastward across the northern part of the North Philippine Sea with an increased forward speed of 10 km/hr and could become a Tropical Storm (TS) by tomorrow afternoon, Thursday (Sept 19).

The combined effects of NIMFA’s broad Trough and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will continue to bring scattered to occasional light to moderate to at times heavy rain showers and thunderstorms with squalls (sudden gust of winds) across Batanes & Babuyan Island Group, Luzon including Metro Manila, Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Kalayaan Island Group and Western Visayas today and tomorrow.

Where is NIMFA? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, September 18…0900 GMT. The center was located over the mid-western part of the North Philippine Sea (near 21.7°N 128.9°E), about 728 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes or 1,146 km northeast of Metro Manila.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) Northeast @ 05 kph, towards the Northern Part of the North Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None. 
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) while moving NNE across the North Philippine Sea…about 842 km E of Taipei, Taiwan [2PM Sept 19: 23.5°N 129.7°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to intensify as it turns westward slowly over the North Philippine Sea…about 639 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan [2PM Sept 20: 23.7°N 127.7°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching Severe Tropical Storm (STS) status as it accelerates NNW across the Southern Ryukyu Area, exits the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 548 km ENE of Taipei, Taiwan [2PM Sept 21: 27.2°N 126.5°E @ 85kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 1,545 km (Large)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed September 18, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 21.7°N Lat 128.9°E Lon
Distance 1: 790 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 810 km E of Taitung, Taiwan
Distance 3: 835 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 844 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 878 km ENE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 23.5°N 129.7°E (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 23.7°N 127.7°E (TS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 27.2°N 126.5°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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