Tropical Storm PHANFONE (URSULA) Final Update

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TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE (URSULA) UPDATE NO. 17 [FINAL]

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday, 28 December 2019
Current Status and Outlook

PHANFONE (URSULA) is just about to leave the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it weakens rapidly into a Tropical Storm (TS)…likely to be just a Tropical Depression (TD) later today.

*Due to its departure from PAR, this is now the Final Update on the last Tropical Cyclone of 2019.

24-hr Outlook: TS PHANFONE (URSULA) will continue to weaken and be downgraded into a TD while moving westerly across the South China Sea (outside of PAR).  

Where is PHANFONE (URSULA)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 28…2100 GMT. The center was located near the PAR line (14.5°N 115.3°E), about 535 km west-southwest of Alaminos City, Pangasinan or 620 km west of Metro Manila.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Southwest @ 16 kph, towards the South China Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected):

>> None.


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ >> None.

+Waves of 2 to 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Outside of PAR, or over the South China Sea as it weakens further into a weak Tropical Depression (TD), moving westward…about 871 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2AM Dec 29: 14.7°N 112.0°E @ 45kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 215 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 335 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat December 28, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 14.5°N Lat 115.3°E Lon
Distance 1: 561 km WSW of San Carlos City, Pangasinan
Distance 2: 567 km WSW of Dagupan City, Pangasinan
Distance 3: 573 km W of Angeles City, Pampanga
Distance 4: 579 km W of Tarlac City, Tarlac
Distance 5: 591 km WSW of San Fernando City, La Union
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 14.7°N 112.0°E (TD)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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