Severe Tropical Storm PHANFONE (URSULA) Update No. 16

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SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE (URSULA) UPDATE NO. 16

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday, 27 December 2019
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday, 28 December 2019
Current Status and Outlook

PHANFONE (URSULA) no longer a Typhoon as it weakens into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while over the western edge of the West Philippine Sea…will move out of the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow (Saturday) morning.

24-hr Outlook: STS PHANFONE (URSULA) will encounter a new blast of cold dry air brought about by the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) through the next 24 hours and continue to weaken the system further into a Tropical Depression (TD). It will then turn west-southwestward across the South China Sea with an increased forward speed of 15 km/hr by tomorrow afternoon (Dec 28).  

Where is PHANFONE (URSULA)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 27…0900 GMT. The center was located over the westernmost part of the West Philippine Sea (near 15.0°N 116.4°E), about 405 km west-southwest of Alaminos City, Pangasinan or 503 km west of Metro Manila.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 110 kph near the center…Gustiness: 140 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) Northwest @ 07 kph, towards the South China Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected):

>> None.


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ >> None.

+Waves of 2 to 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Already outside of PAR, or over the South China Sea as it weakens further into an Tropical Depression (TD), moving WSW-ward…about 720 km NW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 28: 14.0°N 113.6°E @ 55kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 210 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 992 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 375 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 45 km from the center.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri December 27, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 15.0°N Lat 116.4°E Lon
Distance 1: 432 km WSW of San Carlos City, Pangasinan
Distance 2: 443 km W of Balanga City, Bataan
Distance 3: 450 km W of Angeles City, Pampanga
Distance 4: 457 km W of San Fernando City, Pampanga
Distance 5: 460 km WSW of San Fernando City, La Union
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 14.0°N 113.6°E (TD)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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