Typhoon PHANFONE (URSULA) Update No. 15





Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday, 27 December 2019
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday, 27 December 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon PHANFONE (URSULA) continues losing strength as it moved slowly north-northwest during the past 12 hours…likely to exit the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow (Saturday) morning.

24-hr Outlook: TY PHANFONE (URSULA) is expected to encounter a new surge of cold dry air from the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) on Saturday morning, and is forecast to weaken into a Tropical Storm (TS) and then turn west to west-southwestward across the West Philippine Sea at a decreased forward speed of 09 km/hr.  

Where is PHANFONE (URSULA)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 27…2100 GMT. The cloud-filled eye was located over the western part of the West Philippine Sea (near 14.8°N 117.2°E), about 332 km west of Olongapo City, Zambales or 416 km west of Metro Manila.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 130 kph near the center…Gustiness: 155 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) North-Northwest @ 12 kph, across the West Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected):

>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ >> None.

+Waves of 2 to 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits PAR as it weakens into an TS while turning slowly W to WSW-ward across the West Philippine Sea…about 528 km W of Olongapo City, Zambales [2AM Dec 28: 14.4°N 115.4°E @ 85kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Dying over the South China Sea, just a remnant Tropical Disturbance (LPA)…about 751 km NW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 29: 14.7°N 112.0°E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 980 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 415 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 60 km from the center.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri December 27, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 14.8°N Lat 117.2°E Lon
Distance 1: 356 km WSW of San Carlos City, Pangasinan
Distance 2: 363 km WSW of Dagupan City, Pangasinan
Distance 3: 366 km W of Angeles City, Pampanga
Distance 4: 373 km W of San Fernando City, Pampanga
Distance 5: 389 km W of Malolos City, Bulacan
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 14.4°N 115.4°E (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 14.7°N 112.0°E (LPA)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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