Typhoon PHANFONE (URSULA) Update No. 14





Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 26 December 2019
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday, 27 December 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon PHANFONE (URSULA) has slowed down and weakened further while over the West Philippine Sea during the past 12 hours…expected to exit the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Saturday early morning (Dec 28). 

24-hr Outlook: TY PHANFONE (URSULA) is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward across the West Philippine Sea at a decreased forward speed of 10 km/hr and is expected to be downgraded into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) by tomorrow afternoon (Dec 27).  

Where is PHANFONE (URSULA)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 26…0900 GMT. The cloud-filled eye was located over the West Philippine Sea (near 13.7°N 117.8°E), about 296 km west-southwest of Olongapo City, Zambales or 365 km west-southwest of Metro Manila.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 140 kph near the center…Gustiness: 170 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) Northwest @ 12 kph, across the West Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected):

>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ >> None.

+Waves of 2 to 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into an STS while moving slowly WNW to westward across the West Philippine Sea…about 452 km W of Olongapo City, Zambales [2PM Dec 27: 14.5°N 116.1°E @ 110kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD) while outside of PAR or over the South China Sea…about 751 km NW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 28: 13.8°N 113.1°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 975 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 420 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 30 km from the center.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu December 26, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.7°N Lat 117.8°E Lon
Distance 1: 316 km NW of Coron, Palawan
Distance 2: 341 km WSW of Angeles City, Pampanga
Distance 3: 343 km WSW of Mabalacat City, Pampanga
Distance 4: 348 km WSW of Imus City, Cavite
Distance 5: 351 km WSW of Bacoor City, Cavite
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 14.5°N 116.1°E (STS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.8°N 113.1°E (TD)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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