Typhoon PHANFONE (URSULA) Update No. 13

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TYPHOON PHANFONE (URSULA) UPDATE NO. 13

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday, 26 December 2019
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 26 December 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon PHANFONE (URSULA) has slowed down and weakened during the past 12 hours while over the West Philippine Sea, and continues to move away from the country…Forecast to exit the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Saturday early morning (Dec 28). 

24-hr Outlook: TY PHANFONE (URSULA) is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward across the West Philippine Sea at a decreased forward speed of 12 km/hr and is expected to weaken further to a Category 1 Typhoon.  

Where is PHANFONE (URSULA)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 26…2100 GMT. The cloud-filled eye was located over the West Philippine Sea (near 13.1°N 118.9°E), about 181 km west-southwest of Coron, Palawan or 285 km southwest of Metro Manila.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 145 kph near the center…Gustiness: 180 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 17 kph, across the West Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected):

>> None.


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ >> None.

+Waves of 2 to 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakening while moving WNW across the West Philippine Sea, just to the SW of Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal…about 395 km WSW of Olongapo City, Zambales [2AM Dec 27: 14.1°N 116.7°E @ 130kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it exits the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 569 km WSW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2AM Dec 28: 14.4°N 115.0°E @ 140kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 380 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 400 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 70 km from the center.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu December 26, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.1°N Lat 118.9°E Lon
Distance 1: 245 km WSW of Batangas City, Batangas
Distance 2: 247 km SW of Balanga City, Bataan
Distance 3: 250 km WSW of Trece Martires City, Cavite
Distance 4: 264 km WSW of Imus City, Cavite
Distance 5: 267 km WSW of Bacoor City, Cavite
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 14.1°N 116.7°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 14.4°N 115.0°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Screenshot source: DOST-PAGASA (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin/2)

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