Typhoon PHANFONE (URSULA) Update No. 12





Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday, 25 December 2019
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday, 26 December 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon PHANFONE (URSULA) is now emerging over the West Philippine Sea after it passed the southern coastal areas of Occidental Mindoro (Magsaysay and San Jose including the Islands of Ambulong and Ilin) a few hours ago. Stormy weather will still prevail across Occidental Mindoro and the Calamian Group of Islands tonight. 

24-hr Outlook: TY PHANFONE (URSULA) is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward across the West Philippine Sea at a decreased forward speed of 16 km/hr with little change in strength.  

Where is PHANFONE (URSULA)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 25…0900 GMT. The cloud-filled eye was located  near the west coast of Rizal, Occidental Mindoro (12.4°N 120.7°E), about 49 km south-southwest of Sablayan, Occidental Mindoro or 69 km northeast of Coron, Palawan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 165 kph near the center…Gustiness: 200 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 21 kph, towards West Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected):

>> Mindoro and the Calamian Group of Islands – Tonight.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

>> Southern & Western Mindoro and the Calamian Island Group – Tonight.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: Along the coastal and beachfront areas of Southern and Western Mindoro including smaller islands and islets and the Calamian Group of Islands – Tonight.

+Waves of 2 to 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its strength while moving WNW across the West Philippine Sea…about 298 km WNW of Coron, Palawan [2PM Dec 26: 13.4°N 117.8°E @ 165kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Starts losing strength while over the West Philippine Sea, turns westward slowly as it is about to exit the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 463 km WSW of Olongapo City, Zambales [2PM Dec 27: 14.3°N 116.0°E @ 140kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 445 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 65 km from the center.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed December 25, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 12.4°N Lat 120.7°E Lon
Distance 1: 156 km SSW of Batangas City, Batangas
Distance 2: 171 km W of Romblon, Romblon
Distance 3: 193 km SSW of Tanauan City, Batangas
Distance 4: 204 km SSW of Calamba City, Laguna
Distance 5: 245 km S of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.4°N 117.8°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 14.3°N 116.0°E (TY)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 14.1°N 113.4°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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