Typhoon PHANFONE (URSULA) Update No. 11





Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Wednesday, 25 December 2019
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday, 25 December 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon PHANFONE (URSULA) has intensified slightly while moving away from Northwestern Panay, approaching the islands of Sibay, Caluya and Semirara. Its core is expected to pass over or very close to Ilin Island, Bulalacao, Magsaysay and San Jose in Occidental Mindoro later this afternoon. 

24-hr Outlook: TY PHANFONE (URSULA) is forecast to move west-northwestward at a decreased forward speed of 19 km/hr, passing very close to the north of the Calamian Group tonight, and by Thursday morning, the typhoon will continue to  intensify as it moves over the West Philippine Sea.  

Where is PHANFONE (URSULA)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, December 25…0300 GMT. The ragged eye was located  along the offshore areas of Northwestern Panay (near 12.0°N 121.8°E), about 15 km northwest of Boracay Island, Aklan or 93 km east-southeast of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 165 kph near the center…Gustiness: 200 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 21 kph, towards Southern Mindoro-Busuanga Island Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: Along Southern Tip of Mindoro (incl. Ilin Island), between 3 to 4 PM local time Today, Christmas Day – with High Strike Probability of 95%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected):

>> Northwestern Panay, Masbate, Romblon and Calamian Group of Islands, Mindoro inclSemirara, Caluya, Sibay, and Ilin Islands – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

>> Northwestern Panay incl. Boracay Island, Western part of Romblon, Semirara-Caluya-Sibay-Ilin Islands, Southern & Eastern Mindoro – Today.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: Along the coastal and beachfront areas of Romblon & Calamian Group of Islands, Southern & Eastern Mindoro, Northern & Northwestern Panay – Today.

+Waves of 2 to 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY MORNING: Intensifies as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea…about 220 km WNW of Coron, Palawan [8AM Dec 26: 12.8°N 118.3°E @ 170kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

FRIDAY MORNING: Starts losing strength as it moves slowly WNW across the West Philippine Sea…about 463 km WSW of Olongapo City, Zambales [8AM Dec 27: 13.9°N 116.1°E @ 155kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SATURDAY MORNING: Accelerates Westward as it weaken into an STS…exits the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 680 km NW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Dec 28: 13.9°N 114.0°E @ 100kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 310 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 430 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 60 km from the center.

Additional Information Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Wed December 25, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 12.0°N Lat 121.8°E Lon
Distance 1: 82 km SW of Romblon, Romblon
Distance 2: 131 km NW of Paasi City, Iloilo
Distance 3: 165 km NNW of Iloilo City, Iloilo
Distance 4: 176 km E of Coron, Palawan
Distance 5: 297 km SSE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 12.8°N 118.3°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.9°N 116.1°E (TY)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.9°N 114.0°E (STS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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