Typhoon PHANFONE (URSULA) Update No. 10

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TYPHOON PHANFONE (URSULA) UPDATE NO. 10

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday, 25 December 2019
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Wednesday, 25 December 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon PHANFONE (URSULA) is now passing very close to Northern Panay and is  directly hitting the area with damaging typhoon-force winds and heavy, continuous rainfall. Its core (the eye & eyewall) is likely to pass over or very close to Boracay Island later this morning. 

24-hr Outlook: TY PHANFONE (URSULA) is forecast to continue moving west to west-northwestward at a decreased forward speed of 20 km/hr, passing over or very close to Semirara Island and San Jose, Occidental Mindoro this afternoon, and shall pass over or very close to Busuanga Island tonight.  By early Thursday morning, the typhoon will slightly intensify as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea.  

Where is PHANFONE (URSULA)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 25…2100 GMT. The ragged eye was located over the Jintotolo Channel or along the offshore areas of Northern Capiz (near 11.7°N 122.9°E), about 24 km northeast of Roxas City, Capiz or 111 km east of Boracay Island, Aklan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 155 kph near the center…Gustiness: 190 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 22 kph, towards Northern Aklan-Southern Mindoro Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: Along Numancia-Caticlan-Boracay Area (Northern Aklan), between 8 to 9 AM local time Today, Christmas Day – with High Strike Probability 90-95%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected):

>> Northern Panay, Masbate, Romblon Group of Islands, Southern Mindoro, Calamian Group of Islands – Today.


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

>> Western Masbate & Northern Panay incl. Roxas City & Boracay Island, Romblon Group of Islands, Semirara Island, Southern & Eastern Mindoro – Today.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: Along the coastal and beachfront areas of Northern Cebu, Northern Negros, Bantayan Island, Western and Southern Masbate, Romblon Group of Islands, Southern & Eastern Mindoro, Northern & Northwestern Panay – Today.

+Waves of 2 to 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies slightly as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea…about 123 km WNW of Coron, Palawan [2AM Dec 26: 12.6°N 119.2°E @ 165kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts losing strength as it moves WNW across the West Philippine Sea…about 451 km WSW of Olongapo City, Zambales [2AM Dec 27: 13.6°N 116.3°E @ 165kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Slows down and starts to weaken as it exits the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 609 km W of Olongapo City, Zambales [2AM Dec 28: 14.0°N 114.7°E @ 120kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 320 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 975 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 335 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 80 km from the center.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed December 25, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 11.7°N Lat 122.9°E Lon
Distance 1: 95 km NNW of Victorias City, Negros Occidental
Distance 2: 105 km NNW of Cadiz City, Negros Occidental
Distance 3: 107 km NNW of Sagay City, Negros Occidental
Distance 4: 115 km NNE of Iloilo City, Iloilo
Distance 5: 377 km SSE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 12.6°N 119.2°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.6°N 116.3°E (TY)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 14.0°N 114.7°E (TY)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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