Typhoon PHANFONE (URSULA) Update No. 09

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TYPHOON PHANFONE (URSULA) UPDATE NO. 09

Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Wednesday, 25 December 2019
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday, 25 December 2019
Current Status and Outlook

The intensifying core of Typhoon PHANFONE (URSULA) has emerged over the Visayan Sea after crossing Tacloban City-Northern Leyte area…now passing close to Southern Masbate.  Its eyewall is now pounding Southern Masbate with intense rainfall and powerful, typhoon-force winds.

24-hr Outlook: TY PHANFONE (URSULA) is forecast to maintain its strength and will continue moving west to west-northwestward at a decreased forward speed of 20 km/hr, passing very close to Roxas City Wednesday morning, making its way across or near the coastal areas of  Northern Panay in the afternoon.  

Where is PHANFONE (URSULA)? As of 11:00 PM PhT today, December 24…1500 GMT. The eye was located over the Visayan Sea or near the west coast of San Isidro, Leyte (near 11.4°N 124.1°E), about 69 km northwest of Ormoc City, Leyte or 122 km south-southeast of Masbate City, Masbate.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 155 kph near the center…Gustiness: 190 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 30 kph, towards Southern Masbate-Northern Panay Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: Landfall #3Along Northwestern Panay incl. Boracay Island, between 10 to 11 AM local time Today, Christmas Day – with High Strike Probability 90-95%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected):

>> Western Samar, Sorsogon, Masbate, Northwestern Leyte, Biliran Island, Mindoro, Romblon, Northern Panay, Northern Cebu, Bantayan Island, Mindoro, Calamian Group of Islands – Today.


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

>> Southern  parts of Western Samar, Northwestern Leyte including Biliran Island, Ticao Island, Masbate & Northern Panay incl. Roxas City & Boracay Island, Semirara Island, & Southern & Eastern Mindoro – Today.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: Along the coastal and beachfront areas of Eastern  and Northern Leyte including Biliran Island, Northern Tip of Cebu, Northern Negros, Bantayan, Eastern and Southern Masbate, Romblon, Southern & Eastern Mindoro, and Northern Panay – Today.

+Waves of 2 to 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY EVENING: In vicinity of Mindoro Strait (in between Calamian Group and Southern Mindoro, maintains its strength…about 41 km NNE of Coron, Palawan [8PM Dec 25: 12.4°N 120.3°E @ 155kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

THURSDAY EVENING: Intensifying as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea, while moving WNW-ward…about 380 km WNW of Coron, Palawan [8PM Dec 26: 13.5°N 117.0°E @ 165kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

FRIDAY EVENING: Slows down and starts to weaken as it is about to leave the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 554 km W of Olongapo City, Zambales [8PM Dec 27: 14.1°N 115.2°E @ 130kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 330 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 975 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 385 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 85 km from the center.

Additional Information Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Tue December 24, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 11.4°N Lat 124.1°E Lon
Distance 1: 92 km SW of Calbayog City, Samar
Distance 2: 95 km NE of Sagay City, Negros Occidental
Distance 3: 97 km N of Danao City, Cebu
Distance 4: 117 km NE of Cadiz City, Negros Occidental
Distance 5: 483 km SE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 12.4°N 120.3°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.5°N 117.0°E (TY)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 14.1°N 115.2°E (TY)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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