Typhoon PHANFONE (URSULA) Update No. 08

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TYPHOON PHANFONE (URSULA) UPDATE NO. 08

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday, 24 December 2019
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Wednesday, 25 December 2019
Current Status and Outlook

The eye of Typhoon PHANFONE (URSULA) has made landfall along the towns of Guiuan and Salcedo in Eastern Samar as it intensified further…Typhoon conditions currently occurring across Southern Samar and Northern Leyte. Its Western Eyewall bringing destructive winds and torrential rains across Tacloban City.

24-hr Outlook: TY PHANFONE (URSULA) is forecast to maintain its strength and continue moving west to  west-northwestward at an increased forward speed of 23 km/hr, passing over or very close to Tacloban City Area between 7-8 PM tonight and then traverse Northern Leyte before midnight. It shall then make its way across the coastal areas of Daanbantayan, Cebu and Bantayan Island around midnight, and across the northernmost part of Panay Island through Wednesday afternoon.  

Where is PHANFONE (URSULA)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 24…2100 GMT. The 35-km diameter, cloud-filled eye was located over Southernmost part of Eastern Samar (near 11.1°N 125.7°E), about 8 km north-northwest of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or 82 km east-southeast of Tacloban City, Leyte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 140 kph near the center…Gustiness: 170 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 20 kph, towards Southern Samar-Northern Leyte-Biliran Island Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: Landfall #2Along Tacloban City-Palo-Tanauan Area (Leyte), between 7 to 8 PM local time tonight (Christmas Eve) – with High Strike Probability of 95%. 

:: Landfall #3Along the Towns of Estancia & Carles (Iloilo), between 3 to 4 AM local time tomorrow, Christmas Day – with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.

What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected):

>> Eastern & Northern Visayas, Dinagat-Siargao Islands, Sorsogon, Masbate – Occurring Now through Wednesday Morning (Dec 25).

>> Mindoro, Romblon, Northern Panay, Northern Cebu, Mindoro, Calamian Group of Islands – Beginning Tonight through Wednesday Evening (Dec 25)
.


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

>> Southern  parts of Eastern & Western Samar, Northern Leyte including Tacloban City Area and Biliran Island – Occurring Now through Christmas Day (between now to 2 AM).

>> Southern Masbate & Northern Panay incl. Roxas City & Boracay Island, Semirara Island, & Southern & Eastern Mindoro – beginning Tomorrow, Christmas Day (between 2 AM to 2 PM).

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: Along the coastal and beachfront areas of Eastern and Northern Leyte including Biliran Island, Northern Tip of Cebu, Bantayan, Eastern and Southern Masbate, Romblon, and Northern Panay – Today through Christmas Day.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Semirara Island along Tablas Strait, as it maintains its strength after crossing Northern Panay…about 114 km SW of Romblon, Romblon [2PM Dec 25: 11.4°N 123.5°E @ 140kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifying as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea, after traversing Northern Panay and Mindoro Strait…about 322 km WNW of Coron, Palawan [2PM Dec 26: 13.3°N 117.5°E @ 155kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Slows down and starts to weaken as it is about to leave the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 531 km W of Olongapo City, Zambales [8AM Dec 27: 14.0°N 115.8°E @ 130kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 975 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 535 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 55 km from the center.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue December 24, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 11.1°N Lat 125.7°E Lon
Distance 1: 118 km E of Ormoc City, Leyte
Distance 2: 140 km NE of Maasin City, Southern Leyte
Distance 3: 162 km SE of Calbayog City, Samar
Distance 4: 201 km ENE of Danao City, Cebu
Distance 5: 734 km SE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 12.0°N 121.4°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.3°N 117.5°E (TY)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 14.2°N 115.4°E (TY)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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