Typhoon KAMMURI (TISOY) Update No. 12





Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Tuesday, 03 December 2019
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday, 03 December 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon KAMMURI (TISOY) still intensifying reaches 200 km/hr winds…made landfall along Northeastern Sorsogon, along Prieto Diaz and Gubat Area around 10:30 PM this evening. Its large eye now approaching Legazpi City while its broad eyewall continues to engulf the whole Bicol Region with typhoon-force winds and intense rains.

24-hr Outlook: TY KAMMURI (TISOY) is forecast to continue moving westward at forward speed of 19 km/hr and will pass over Legazpi and exit just to the south of Balatan, Camarines Sur early this morning. It shall be over Ragay Gulf and Northern Burias around sunrise and make landfalls over Bondoc Peninsula and Northern Mindoro through the morning until the evening.  By Wednesday morning (Dec 04), the typhoon will emerge over the West Philippine Sea.

Where is KAMMURI (TISOY)? As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, December 02…1500 GMT. The large eye was located in the vicinity of  Bacon-Sorsogon City Area (near 13.1°N 124.1°E), about 9 km east of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon or 45 km east-southeast of Legazpi City,  Albay.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 200 kph near the center…Gustiness: 240 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 18 kph, towards Western Albay-Burias Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: Landfall 2 – Along San Francisco (Albay), between 7 to 8 AM Tuesday local time  (Dec 03) – with High Strike Probability of 95-100%.

:: Landfall 3 – Along Southern Marinduque, between 11 AM to 12 PM local time on Tuesday (Dec 03) – with High Strike Probability of 90%.

:: Landfall 4 – Over Northern Oriental/Occidental Mindoro, between 3 to 8 PM local time on Tuesday (Dec 03) – with High Strike Probability of 90%.

What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to >100 mm expected):
>> Bicol Region & Samar Provinces – Tonight through Tuesday (Dec 03).

>>Eastern and Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CaLaBaRZon, Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon – Tonight through Tuesday (Dec 03).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Camarines Provinces, Bondoc Peninsula, Northern Masbate, Romblon, Marinduque, Ticao and Burias Islands – Tonight 
 through Tuesday Morning (Dec 03).

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: Coastal Areas of Quezon, Bicol and Samar Provinces – Tonight.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY EVENING: Over the NW Coast of Occidental Mindoro, weakens into a Category 2 Typhoon…about 81 km WSW of Batangas City, Batangas [8PM Dec 03: 13.4°N 120.4°E @ 165kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

WEDNESDAY EVENING: In the vicinity of Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal as it weakens into a Category 1 Typhoon while moving WNW-ward…about 357 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8PM Dec 04: 15.6°N 116.7°E @ 120kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

THURSDAY EVENING: Weakens further as it nears the western borderline of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 538 km WSW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8PM Dec 05: 14.7°N 115.2°E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 943 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 700 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 150 km from the center

Additional Information Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Mon December 02, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.0°N Lat 124.1°E Lon
Distance 1: 61 km SE of Tabaco City, Albay
Distance 2: 68 km ESE of Ligao City, Albay
Distance 3: 72 km SSW of Bato, Camarines Sur
Distance 4: 87 km ESE of Iriga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 373 km ESE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.4°N 120.4°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 15.6°N 116.7°E (TY)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 14.7°N 115.2°E (STS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

Image Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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