Typhoon KAMMURI (TISOY) Update No. 11

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TYPHOON KAMMURI (TISOY) UPDATE NO. 11

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday, 02 December 2019
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Tuesday, 03 December 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon KAMMURI (TISOY) gaining more strength while over the warm Albay Gulf, revealing a 55-km diameter ragged eye. Its broad eyewall is now lashing the provinces of Catanduanes, Northern Samar, Sorsogon, Albay, and Eastern Camarines Sur (Partido District). The potential landfall area of this typhoon is somewhere along Southeastern Albay on or before midnight.

24-hr Outlook: TY KAMMURI (TISOY) is forecast to continue moving westward at an increased forward speed of 20 km/hr and could still intensify slightly prior in making landfall over Southeastern Albay. It will then traverse Legazpi City, Pio Duran and Balatan early tomorrow morning as it weakens into a Category 2 Typhoon. By tomorrow afternoon, Kammuri (Tisoy) will be crossing the Verde Island Passage after making landfalls over Bondoc Peninsula and Marinduque.

Meanwhile, this typhoon will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring breezy conditions with some chances of passing “on-&-off” rain showers and thunderstorms across most parts of Luzon tonight through Tuesday (Dec 03). The seas will be rough and dangerous to sea crafts.

Where is KAMMURI (TISOY)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 02…0900 GMT. The eye was located over Albay Gulf (near 13.1°N 125.1°E), about 152 km east of Legazpi City, Albay or 216 km east-southeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 180 kph near the center…Gustiness: 225 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 18 kph, towards Bicol Region.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: Landfall 1 – Along Prieto Diaz, Bacon, Manito, & Rapu-Rapu (Albay), between 10 PM today to 12 AM Tuesday local time  (Dec 03) – with High Strike Probability of 95-100%.

:: Landfall 2 – Along San Francisco, San Andres, Pagsangahan (Southern Quezon), between 7 to 8 AM local time on Tuesday (Dec 03) – with High Strike Probability of 90%.

:: Landfall 3 – Over Marinduque, between 10 to 11 AM local time on Tuesday (Dec 03) – with High Strike Probability of 90%.

What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to >100 mm expected):
>> Bicol Region & Samar Provinces – Tonight through Tuesday (Dec 03).

>>Eastern and Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CaLaBaRZon, Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon – Tonight through Tuesday (Dec 03).


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> Northern Samar, Western Samar, Northern part of Eastern Samar, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Camarines Provinces, Bondoc Peninsula, Masbate, Ticao and Burias Islands – Tonight 
 through Tuesday Morning (Dec 03).

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: Coastal Areas of Quezon, Bicol and Samar Provinces – Tonight.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Traversing the Verde Island Passage (Mindoro) on a West to WNW track, weakens into a Category 1 Typhoon…about 20 km NE of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro [2PM Dec 03: 13.5°N 121.3°E @ 165kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal as it weakens into a Category 1 Typhoon…about 306 km WSW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2PM Dec 04: 15.2°N 117.3°E @ 120kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it lingers over the western borderline of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 496 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2PM Dec 05: 15.5°N 115.4°E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 951 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 780 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 155 km from the center

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon December 02, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.0°N Lat 125.1°E Lon
Distance 1: 119 km E of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 2: 117 km ENE of Calbayog City, Samar
Distance 3: 162 km ESE of Tabaco City, Tabaco
Distance 4: 118 km SE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 5: 470 km ESE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.5°N 121.3°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 15.2°N 117.3°E (TY)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 15.5°N 115.4°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Image Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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