Typhoon KAMMURI (TISOY) Update No. 10

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TYPHOON KAMMURI (TISOY) UPDATE NO. 10

Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Monday, 02 December 2019
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday, 02 December 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon KAMMURI (TISOY) has slowed down slightly while intensifying rapidly near the Gulf of Albay and is now endangering the whole Bicol Region with its wide-swath of 100 to more than 130 km/hr damaging winds with an estimated 24-hr rainfall accumulation of about 450 mm.  The potential landfall area of this typhoon is somewhere along Eastern Albay early tomorrow morning.

24-hr Outlook: TY KAMMURI (TISOY) is forecast to continue moving westward at a forward speed of 18 km/hr and could become a Category 3 Typhoon prior in making landfall over Albay or Camarines Sur with winds of 170 km/hr later this afternoon or evening. It will begin to weaken after traversing Bicol Region early tomorrow morning as it makes its second landfall over Bondoc Peninsula in Southern Quezon around 8am tomorrow. 

Meanwhile, this typhoon will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring breezy conditions with some chances of passing “on-&-off” rain showers and thunderstorms across most parts of Luzon today through Tuesday (Dec 03). The seas will be rough and dangerous to sea crafts.

Where is KAMMURI (TISOY)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, December 02…0300 GMT. The 84-km diameter eye was located over the westernmost part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.1°N 126.1°E), about 260 km east of Legazpi City, Albay or 319 km almost east of Naga City, Camarines Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 155 kph near the center…Gustiness: 190 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 18 kph, towards the Bicol Region.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: Landfall 1 – Along Tiwi-Tabaco City Area (Albay), between 2 to 3 AM Tuesday local time  (Dec 03) – with High Strike Probability of 95%.

:: Landfall 2 – Along San Narciso-San Andres Area (Southern Quezon), between 8 to 9 AM local time on Tuesday (Dec 03) – with High Strike Probability of 90%.

:: Landfall 3 – Along Laiya-Subukin Area (Southeastern Batangas), between 2 to 3 PM local time on Tuesday (Dec 03) – with High Strike Probability of 90%.

What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to >100 mm expected):
>> Bicol Region & Samar Provinces – beginning Today (Monday) through Tuesday (Dec 03).

>>Eastern and Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CaLaBaRZon, Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon – beginning late this Afternoon (Monday) through Tuesday (Dec 03).


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, and Camarines Provinces – beginning this Afternoon 
or Evening (Dec 02) through Tuesday Noontime (Dec 03).

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: Coastal Areas of Quezon, Bicol and Samar Provinces – Today.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY MORNING In the vicinity of Bondoc Peninsula, Quezon as it weakens into a Category 2 Typhoon after traversing Bicolandia…about 23 km NW of San Andres, Burias Island [8AM Dec 03: 13.5°N 122.6°E @ 155kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Emerging over the Luzon Sea or just along the offshore areas of Lubang Island, just a Category 1 Typhoon as it turns WNW-ward towards the West Philippine Sea…about 225 km W of Olongapo City, Zambales [8AM Dec 04: 15.0°N 118.2°E @ 120kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

THURSDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves across the Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal…about 464 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8AM Dec 05: 15.5°N 115.7°E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 710 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 140 km from the center

Additional Information Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Mon December 02, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.1°N Lat 126.1°E Lon
Distance 1: 175 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 294 km E of Iriga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 3: 228 km E of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 4: 213 km ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 5: 568 km ESE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.5°N 122.6°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 15.0°N 118.2°E (TY)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 15.5°N 115.7°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Image Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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