Typhoon KAMMURI (TISOY) Update No. 09

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TYPHOON KAMMURI (TISOY) UPDATE NO. 09

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday, 02 December 2019
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Monday, 02 December 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon KAMMURI (TISOY) has maintained its strength and movement as it moves closer to Bicol Region. This typhoon is expected to make landfall over Eastern Bicol by early tomorrow morning (Tue).  Its rainbands now spreading across Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas.  

24-hr Outlook: TY KAMMURI (TISOY) is forecast to slow down slightly while moving westward at a decreased forward speed of 18 km/hr and could become a Category 3 Typhoon with winds of 170 km/hr later this afternoon…and shall be in the vicinity of Northern Albay and Camarines Sur by early tomorrow morning. 

Meanwhile, this typhoon will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring breezy conditions with some chances of passing “on-&-off” rain showers and thunderstorms across most parts of Luzon today through Tuesday (Dec 03). The seas will be rough and dangerous to sea crafts.

Where is KAMMURI (TISOY)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 02…2100 GMT. The ragged eye was located over the western part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.1°N 127.1°E), about 319 km east of Virac, Catanduanes or 426 km east of Naga City, Camarines Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 140 kph near the center…Gustiness: 170 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 25 kph, towards the Bicol Region.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: Landfall 1 – Along Tiwi, Albay, between 2 to 3 AM Tuesday local time  (Dec 03) – with High Strike Probability of 95%.

:: Landfall 2 – Along San Narciso-Mulanay-Catanauan Area (Southern Quezon), between 7 to 9 AM local time on Tuesday (Dec 03) – with High Strike Probability of 90%.

:: Landfall 3 – Along Alobo-Sta. Cruz-Mogpog Area (Marinduque), between 10 to 11 AM local time on Tuesday (Dec 03) – with High Strike Probability of 90%.

:: Landfall 4 – Southern Coastal Barangays of Batangas City (Batangas), between 1 to 4 PM local time on Tuesday (Dec 03) – with High Strike Probability of 90%.

What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to >100 mm expected):
>> Bicol Region & Samar Provinces – beginning Today (Monday) through Tuesday (Dec 03).

>>Eastern and Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CaLaBaRZon, Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon – beginning late this Afternoon (Monday) through Tuesday (Dec 03).


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, and Camarines Provinces – beginning this Afternoon 
or Evening (Dec 02) through Tuesday Noontime (Dec 03).

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: Coastal Areas of Quezon, Bicol and Samar Provinces – beginning Today (Monday).

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING Makes landfall over Tiwi, Albay as it weakens to Category 2, begins to traverse Camarines Sur on a westward track…about 12 km SE of Sagñay, Camarines Sur [2AM Dec 03: 13.5°N 123.6°E @ 165kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Over the West Philippine Sea as it weakens into a Category 1 Typhoon after traversing Southernmost Batangas and Lubang Island…about 131 km WSW of Olongapo City, Zambales [2AM Dec 04: 14.3°N 119.2°E @ 120kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it is about to exit the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 405 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2AM Dec 05: 16.0°N 116.2°E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 720 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 125 km from the center

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon December 02, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.1°N Lat 127.1°E Lon
Distance 1: 368 km E of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 2: 402 km E of Iriga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 3: 334 km E of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 4: 360 km ESE of Caramoan, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 672 km ESE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.5°N 123.6°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 14.3°N 119.2°E (TY)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 16.0°N 116.2°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Image Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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