Typhoon KAMMURI (TISOY) Update No. 08





Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday, 01 December 2019
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday, 02 December 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon KAMMURI (TISOY) has slightly accelerated and re-intensified back to 140 km/hr as it aims for the Bicol Region. Further intensification is anticipated as it moves over a very warm pool of moisture (high oceanic heat content) to the east of Catanduanes. This typhoon remains a serious threat  to Bicol Provinces and is expected to bring stormy weather beginning tomorrow, Monday (Dec 02) through Tuesday (Dec 03). 

24-hr Outlook: TY KAMMURI (TISOY) is forecast to slow down while moving westward at a decreased forward speed of 16 km/hr and could become a Category 2 to 3 Typhoon with winds of 155 to 170 km/hr by tomorrow afternoon.

Meanwhile, this typhoon will enhance the Northeasterlies (Weak Amihan) and bring breezy conditions with some chances of passing “on-&-off” rain showers and thunderstorms across most parts of Luzon today through Tuesday (Dec 03). The seas will be rough and dangerous to sea crafts.

Where is KAMMURI (TISOY)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 01…0900 GMT. The cloud-filled eye was located over the middle part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.2°N 129.4°E), about 565 km east of Virac, Catanduanes or 673 km east of Naga City, Camarines Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 140 kph near the center…Gustiness: 170 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 24 kph, towards the Bicol Region.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: Along Eastern Catanduanes, between 12 to 1 AM Tuesday local time  (Dec 03) – with High Strike Probability of 90%.

:: Along Partido District, Camarines Sur (Caramoan Area), between 3 to 4 AM local time on Tuesday (Dec 03) – with High Strike Probability of 90%.

What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to >100 mm expected):
>> Bicol Region & Samar Provinces – beginning early Monday (Dec 02) through Tuesday (Dec 03).

>>Eastern and Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CaLaBaRZon, Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon – beginning Monday Afternoon (Dec 02) through Tuesday (Dec 03).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, and Camarines Provinces – beginning Tomorrow, Monday afternoon 
or evening (Dec 02).

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: Coastal Areas of Quezon, Bicol and Samar Provinces – beginning Tomorrow, Monday (Dec 02).

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY AFTERNOON Continues to move almost westward as it strengthens into a Category 3 typhoon while approaching the offshore areas of Catanduanes…about 214 km E of Bato, Catanduanes [2PM Dec 02: 13.7°N 126.3°E @ 170kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Tayabas Bay, Quezon as it maintains its westward track towards Batangas, weakens into a Category 1 Typhoon…about 33 km SE of Lucena City, Quezon [2PM Dec 03: 13.7°N 121.8°E @ 140kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Emerges over Luzon Sea after crossing Batangas, turns WNW-ward while weakening into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS)…about 295 km WSW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2PM Dec 04: 15.0°N 117.5°E @ 110kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 835 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 110 km from the center

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun December 01, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.2°N Lat 129.4°E Lon
Distance 1: 710 km E of Daet, Camarines Norte
Distance 2: 618 km E of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 3: 586 km E of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 4: 650 km E of Iriga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 913 km E of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.7°N 126.3°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.7°N 121.8°E (TY)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 15.0°N 117.5°E (STS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

Image Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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