Typhoon KAMMURI (TISOY) Update No. 07





Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Sunday, 01 December 2019
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday, 01 December 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon KAMMURI (TISOY) has accelerated westward as it maintained its strength during the past 6 hours while moving across the Philippine Sea. It could re-intensify as it moves over a very warm pool of moisture to the east of Catanduanes. This typhoon is now a serious threat  to Bicol and Samar Provinces and is expected to bring stormy weather beginning Monday (Dec 02) through Tuesday (Dec 03). 

24-hr Outlook: TY KAMMURI (TISOY) is forecast to continue moving westward at a decreased forward speed of 19 km/hr as it traverses the middle and western portions of the Central Philippine Sea and could become a Category 2 to 3 Typhoon with winds of 155 to 170 km/hr tomorrow, Monday. 

Meanwhile, Typhoon KAMMURI (TISOY) will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring windy conditions with passing “on-&-off” rain showers and thunderstorms across the Eastern and Northern Coastal Areas of Luzon including Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas this weekend. The seas will be rough and dangerous to sea crafts.

Where is KAMMURI (TISOY)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, December 01…0300 GMT. The cloud-filled eye was located over the middle part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.1°N 130.7°E), about 706 km east of Virac, Catanduanes or 727 km east of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 120 kph near the center…Gustiness: 150 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 25 kph, towards the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: Along Southern Catanduanes, between 11 PM Monday to 12 AM Tuesday local time  (Dec 03) – with High Strike Probability of 90%.

:: Along Partido District, Camarines Sur (Sagñay-Tigaon Area), between 3 to 4 AM local time on Tuesday (Dec 03) – with High Strike Probability of 90%.

What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to >100 mm expected):
>> Bicol Region & Samar Provinces – beginning early Monday (Dec 02) through Tuesday (Dec 03).>>Eastern and Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CaLaBaRZon, MiMaRoPa – beginning Monday Afternoon (Dec 02) through Tuesday (Dec 03).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, and Camarines Provinces – Beginning Monday afternoon 
or evening (Dec 02).

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: Coastal Areas of Quezon, Bicol and Samar Provinces – Beginning Monday (Dec 02).

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY MORNING: Continues to move westward across the western part of the Central Philippine Sea as it strengthens into a Category 2 typhoon…about 304 km E of Virac, Catanduanes [8AM Dec 02: 13.4°N 127.0°E @ 165kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

TUESDAY MORNING: Over the Shores of Buenavista, Quezon as it prepares its 3rd landfall after making its first and second landfalls over Southern Catanduanes and Camarines Sur…about 25 km SW of Ragay, Camarines Sur [8AM Dec 03: 13.7°N 122.6°E @ 155kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea after crossing Batangas, weakens into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS)…about 215 km W of Olongapo City, Zambales [8AM Dec 04: 14.6°N 118.3°E @ 110kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 830 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 135 km from the center

Additional Information Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun December 01, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.1°N Lat 130.7°E Lon
Distance 1: 661 km E of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 665 km ENE of Tacloban City, Leyte
Distance 3: 759 km E of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 4: 814 km E of Naga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 1054 km E of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.4°N 127.0°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.7°N 122.6°E (TY)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 14.6°N 118.3°E (TY)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

Image Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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