Typhoon NAKRI (QUIEL) Final Update





Issued at:  7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday, 09 November 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon NAKRI (QUIEL) has moved out of the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while maintaining its strength and accelerating further westward in the general direction of Vietnam.  Its inner southern rainbands will continue to bring stormy weather across Kalayaan Island Group (KIG) today. 

*This is the Final Update on this Tropical Cyclone.

Meanwhile: Another weather system was spotted over the Western Pacific Ocean.  The system dubbed as Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 91W has been moving westward across Western Micronesia and could enter PAR probably on Monday (Nov. 11).  At 5:00 AM today, the center of the LPA was located about 820 km east of PAR or 1,871 km east of Borongan, Eastern Samar (10.6°N lat 142.5°E lon), with maximim sustained winds of 30 kph and was moving westward @ 20-25 kph towards the Philippine Sea. Watch out for future updates regarding this LPA in the coming days.

Where is NAKRI (QUIEL)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, November 09…2100 GMT. The center was located over the southern part of the South China Sea (near 12.6°N 114.8°E), about 185 km north-northeast of Pagasa Island (KIG) or 711 km west-southwest of Metro Manila.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 120 kph near the center…Gustiness: 150 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 20 kph, towards Vietnam.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None. 
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to 100 mm expected):
>> Kalayaan Island Group – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Slows down slightly while moving across the southern part of the South China Sea, weakens into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS)…about 750 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Nov 10: 12.7°N 112.5°E @ 110kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Makes landfall over Eastern Vietnam, just north of Nha Trang City and weakens slightly while turning WNW-ward…about 1,114 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Nov 11: 13.2°N 109.1°E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 630 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 135 km from the center.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat November 09, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 12.6°N Lat 116.3°E Lon
Distance 1: 524 km NW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan
Distance 2: 643 km WSW of Olongapo City, Zambales
Distance 3: 682 km WSW of Trece Martires City, Cavite
Distance 4: 686 km WSW of Angeles City, Pampanga
Distance 5: 690 km W of Batangas City, Batangas
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 12.7°N 112.5°E (STS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.1°N 110.7°E (TY)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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