Typhoon NAKRI (QUIEL) Update No. 06

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TYPHOON NAKRI (QUIEL) UPDATE NO. 06

Issued at:  7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday, 08 November 2019
Next update:  7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday, 09 November 2019
Current Status and Outlook

NAKRI (QUIEL) becomes a Typhoon as it starts to accelerate westward…will move out of the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Saturday morning.  Its inner southern rainbands will continue to affect Kalayaan Island Group tonight through Saturday. 

24-hr Outlook: TY NAKRI (QUIEL) is forecast to continue moving westward with a an increased forward speed of 13 km/hr and intensify further.  It will be over the southern part of the South China Sea by tomorrow, Saturday afternoon.

Meanwhile, the storm’s outermost rainbands, together with its Trough and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) – will continue to bring scattered or “on-&-off” rain showers and thunderstorms with squalls (sudden gust of winds) across the western sections of Luzon, Western MiMaRoPa and Extreme Northern Luzon tonight and tomorrow.

Where is NAKRI (QUIEL)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, November 08…0900 GMT. The center was located over the westernmost part of the West Philippine Sea (near 12.6°N 116.3°E), about 399 km northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan or 559 km west-southwest of Metro Manila.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 120 kph near the center…Gustiness: 150 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) WSW @ 08 kph, towards the South China Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None. 
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to 100 mm expected):
>> Kalayaan Island Group – Today.


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None
.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Accelerates westward across the South China Sea, after moving out of the PAR, intensifies slightly…about 612 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Nov 09: 12.5°N 113.8°E @ 130kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching the eastern coastline of Southern Vietnam as it weakens slightly…about 947 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Nov 10: 13.1°N 110.7°E @ 120kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 600 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 695 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 95 km from the center.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri November 08, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 12.6°N Lat 116.3°E Lon
Distance 1: 497 km WSW of Olongapo City, Zambales
Distance 2: 528 km WSW of Trece Martires City, Cavite
Distance 3: 532 km WSW of Tagaytay City, Cavite
Distance 4: 540 km WSW of Imus City, Cavite
Distance 5: 544 km WSW of San Fernando City, Pampanga
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 12.5°N 113.8°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.1°N 110.7°E (TY)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 14.1°N 106.9°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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