Severe Tropical Storm NAKRI (QUIEL) Update No. 05





Issued at:  7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday, 08 November 2019
Next update:  7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday, 08 November 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Severe Tropical Storm NAKRI (QUIEL) at near-typhoon strength as it continues gaining strength, now heading southwestward slowly…expected to exit the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in 24 to 36 hours.  Its southern rainbands spreading across Kalayaan Island Group. 

24-hr Outlook: STS NAKRI (QUIEL) is forecast to move west-southwestward across the westernmost part of the West Philippine Sea with a slow forward speed of 07 km/hr and could become a Typhoon later today. It will exit PAR tomorrow morning, Saturday (Nov 09) and will pass just north of the Kalayaan Island Group (KIG) Saturday afternoon.

Meanwhile, the storm’s outermost rainbands, together with its Trough and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) – will continue to bring scattered or “on-&-off” rain showers and thunderstorms with squalls (sudden gust of winds) across Western Sections of Southern Luzon, MiMaRoPa, and Extreme Northern Luzon today.

Where is NAKRI (QUIEL)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, November 08…2100 GMT. The center was located over the western part of the West Philippine Sea (near 12.8°N 116.8°E), about 376 km west-northwest of Coron, Palawan or 501 km west-southwest of Metro Manila.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 110 kph near the center…Gustiness: 140 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) SW @ 08 kph, towards the Western part of the West Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None. 
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to 100 mm expected):
>> Kalayaan Island Group – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: About to exit the western border of PAR as it becomes a Typhoon while moving WSW towards the South China Sea…about 456 km NW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Nov 09: 12.5°N 115.5°E @ 130kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Accelerates westward across the South China Sea (outside of PAR) as it starts to weaken…about 768 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Nov 10: 12.9°N 112.4°E @ 120kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it makes landfall over the eastern coast of Southern Vietnam, just north of Nha Trang…about 1,090 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Nov 11: 13.1°N 109.3°E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 800 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 685 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 100 km from the center.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri November 08, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 12.8°N Lat 116.8°E Lon
Distance 1: 439 km WSW of Olongapo City, Zambales
Distance 2: 469 km WSW of Trece Martires City, Cavite
Distance 3: 473 km WSW of Batangas City, Batangas
Distance 4: 482 km WSW of Imus City, Cavite
Distance 5: 485 km WSW of Bacoor City, Cavite
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 12.5°N 115.5°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 12.9°N 112.4°E (TY)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.1°N 109.3°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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