Severe Tropical Storm NAKRI (QUIEL) Update No. 04





Issued at:  7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 07 November 2019
Next update:  7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday, 08 November 2019
Current Status and Outlook

NAKRI (QUIEL) more powerful, becomes a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it continues to drift very slowly eastward…expected to turn west-southwestward away from the West Philippine Sea within the next 24 hours. Forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Saturday morning (Nov 09).

24-hr Outlook: TS NAKRI (QUIEL) is forecast to move west-southwestward across the westernmost part of the West Philippine Sea with a very slow forward speed of 05 km/hr and will continue to gain strength, nearing Typhoon classification by  Friday afternoon (Nov 08).

Meanwhile, the storm’s outermost rainbands, together with its Trough and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) – will continue to bring scattered or “on-&-off” rain showers and thunderstorms with squalls (sudden gust of winds) across Western Luzon, Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa and Extreme Northern Luzon today.

Where is NAKRI (QUIEL)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, November 07…0900 GMT. The center was located over the central part of the West Philippine Sea (near 13.4°N 117.4°E), about 337 km west-northwest of Coron, Palawan or 416 km west-southwest of Metro Manila.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) East @ 05 kph, towards the Central part of the West Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None. 
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Changes its track towards the WSW across the open waters of the West Philippine Sea as it nears Typhoon strength…about 426 km WNW of Coron, Palawan [2PM Nov 08: 13.1°N 116.4°E @ 110kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it accelerates WSW to Westward towards Vietnam – becomes a Typhoon…about 686 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Nov 09: 12.6°N 113.1°E @ 130kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slightly as it turns WNW-ward…bearing down the coast of Vietnam, just north of Nha Trang…about 1,036 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Nov 10: 13.3°N 109.9°E @ 120kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 820 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 765 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 65 km from the center.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu November 07, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.4°N Lat 117.4°E Lon
Distance 1: 364 km WSW of Balanga City, Bataan
Distance 2: 393 km W of Tagaytay City, Cavite
Distance 3: 397 km WSW of San Fernando City, Pampanga
Distance 4: 398 km WSW of Imus City, Cavite
Distance 5: 402 km WSW of Bacoor City, Cavite
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.1°N 116.4°E (STS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 12.6°N 113.1°E (TY)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.3°N 109.9°E (TY)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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