Tropical Storm NAKRI (QUIEL) Update No. 03





Issued at:  7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday, 07 November 2019
Next update:  7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 07 November 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm NAKRI (QUIEL) has slightly intensified as it continues to drift slowly eastward across the West Philippine Sea…expected to turn back on a westerly track after 24 hours towards Vietnam.  

24-hr Outlook: TS NAKRI (QUIEL) is forecast to move south-southeastward across the West Philippine Sea with a very slow forward speed of 03 km/hr and will continue to gain strength, reaching Severe Tropical Storm (STS) classification by early Friday morning (Nov 08).

Meanwhile, the storm’s outermost rainbands, together with its Trough and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) – will continue to bring scattered to “on-&-off” rain showers and thunderstorms with squalls (sudden gust of winds) across the Western Luzon, Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa and Extreme Northern Luzon today.

Where is NAKRI (QUIEL)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, November 07…2100 GMT. The center was located over the western part of the West Philippine Sea (near 13.5°N 117.0°E), about 380 km west-northwest of Coron, Palawan or 454 km west-southwest of Metro Manila.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 75 kph near the center…Gustiness: 95 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) Northeast @ 03 kph, towards the Western part of the West Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None. 
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Drifting slowly SSE-ward across the open waters of the West Philippine Sea as it becomes a Severe Tropical Storm (STS)…about 340 km WNW of Coron, Palawan [2AM Nov 08: 13.0°N 117.2°E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to accelerate westward while gaining more strength. Exits the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on its way towards the South China Sea…about 551 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Nov 09: 12.6°N 114.5°E @ 100kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a TS as it approaches the eastern coast of Vietnam on a WNW track…about 891 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Nov 10: 13.2°N 111.3°E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 775 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu November 07, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.5°N Lat 117.0°E Lon
Distance 1: 401 km WSW of Balanga City, Bataan
Distance 2: 428 km WSW of Angeles City, Pampanga
Distance 3: 430 km WSW of Mabalacat City, Pampanga
Distance 4: 436 km SW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan
Distance 5: 438 km WSW of Malolos City, Bulacan
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.0°N 117.2°E (STS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 12.6°N 114.5°E (STS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.2°N 111.3°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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