Tropical Storm NAKRI (QUIEL) Update No. 02

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TROPICAL STORM NAKRI (QUIEL) UPDATE NO. 02

Issued at:  6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Wednesday, 06 November 2019
Next update:  7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday, 07 November 2019
Current Status and Outlook

NAKRI (QUIEL) becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) as it remained quasi-stationary over the West Philippine Sea.  Its outermost rainbands continues to bring scattered to “on-and-off” rain showers and thunderstorms across the western sections of the country.  

24-hr Outlook: TS NAKRI (QUIEL) is forecast to move eastward across the West Philippine Sea with a slow forward speed of 05 km/hr and will continue to gain strength through Thursday afternoon. Based on the current forecast track, this system will not directly affect any part of the country.

Meanwhile, the storm’s outermost rainbands, together with its trough and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) – will continue to bring scattered to “on-&-off” rain showers and thunderstorms with squalls (sudden gust of winds) across the western sections of Luzon and Visayas, MiMaRoPa and Extreme Northern Luzon through Thursday afternoon.

Where is NAKRI (QUIEL)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, November 06…0900 GMT. The center was located over the western part of the West Philippine Sea (near 13.3°N 116.4°E), about 433 km west-northwest of Coron, Palawan or 522 km west-southwest of Metro Manila.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) Quasi-Stationary over the Western part of the West Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None. 
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to 100 mm expected):
>> None.


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None
.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Drifting slowly Eastward across the open waters of the West Philippine Sea as it intensifies further…about 332 km WNW of Coron, Palawan [2PM Nov 07: 13.3°N 117.4°E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Recurves to the West to WSW towards the South China Sea, becomes a Severe Tropical Storm (STS)…about 416 km WNW of Coron, Palawan [2PM Nov 08: 13.0°N 116.3°E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it maintains its Westward track, weakens to a TS…about 656 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Nov 09: 12.6°N 113.4°E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 994 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 850 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed November 06, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.3°N Lat 116.4°E Lon
Distance 1: 453 km NW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan
Distance 2: 494 km WSW of Trece Martires City, Cavite
Distance 3: 498 km WSW of Mabalacat City, Pampanga
Distance 4: 499 km WSW of San Fernando City, Pampanga
Distance 5: 505 km WSW of Imus City, Cavite
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.3°N 117.4°E (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.0°N 116.3°E (STS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 12.6°N 113.4°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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