Typhoon MITAG (ONYOK) Update No. 05





Issued at: 6:15 AM PhT (22:15 GMT) Monday, 30 September 2019
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday, 30 September 2019
Current Status and Outlook

MITAG (ONYOK) strengthened into a Typhoon overnight and is now on its closest approach to Batanes Group, while continuing to move northwestward towards Northeastern Taiwan.  Its western & southwestern rainbands still spreading across Extreme Northern Luzon.

24-hr Outlook: TY MITAG (ONYOK) is forecast to intensify slightly as it makes landfall over Northeastern Taiwan tonight and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on or before midnight. It is then expected to move north-northwest with a forward speed of 24 km/hr, and by early Tuesday morning, the typhoon will be over the offshore areas of Northern Taiwan. 

The western Trough of TY MITAG (ONYOK) will continue to bring cloudy skies with isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with squalls (sudden gust of winds) across Northern and Central Luzon today.

Where is MITAG (ONYOK)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, September 30…2100 GMT. The center was located over the Northeastern part of Bashi Channel (near 21.5°N 123.3°E), about 182 km northeast of Basco, Batanes or 265 km east-southeast of Taitung, Taiwan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 120 kph near the center…Gustiness: 150 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) Northwest @ 24 kph, towards Northeastern Taiwan.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None. 
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Heavy Rains (24-hr. Accumulation of 50 to 100 mm expected):
>> Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Over the offshore areas of Northern Taiwan, outside of PAR…about 74 km N of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM Oct 01: 25.7°N 121.6°E @ 130kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Landfalling over Zhejiang Province, China as it turns N to NNE track, weakens slightly…about 143 km SSE of Shanghai, China [2AM Oct 02: 30.0°N 121.9°E @ 120kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 975 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 735 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 145 km from the center

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon September 30, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 21.5°N Lat 123.3°E Lon
Distance 1: 171 km ENE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 2: 333 km ESE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 3: 356 km NNE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 390 km NNE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 806 km NNE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 25.7°N 121.6°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 30.0°N 121.9°E (TY)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

TCWS by: DOST-PAGASA (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin)

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