Severe Tropical Storm MITAG (ONYOK) Update No. 04





Issued at: 6:15 PM PhT (10:15 GMT) Sunday, 29 September 2019
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday, 30 September 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Severe Tropical Storm MITAG (ONYOK) has intensified further as it approaches the eastern part of the Bashi Channel.  Its western outer rainbands are now spreading across Extreme Northern Luzon particularly Batanes Group.

24-hr Outlook: STS MITAG (ONYOK) is forecast to become a Typhoon while moving north-northwestward across Eastern Bashi Channel, passing well to the east of Batanes Group early Monday morning with a forward speed of 23 km/hr. On Monday afternoon, the storm will be over the East Taiwan Sea and will move out the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late Monday evening or early Tuesday morning

The western Trough of STS MITAG (ONYOK) is expected to bring cloudy skies with isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with squalls (sudden gust of winds) across the whole of Luzon today through Monday.

Where is MITAG (ONYOK)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, September 29…0900 GMT. The center was located over the Southwesternmost part of the North Philippine Sea (near 19.7°N 125.2°E), about 344 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes or 347 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) Northwest @ 22 kph, towards the Bashi Channel-East Taiwan Sea Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None. 
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy Rains (24-hr. Accumulation of 50 to 100 mm expected):
>> Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – Today until Monday (Sept 30).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon while passing over the East Taiwan Sea, starts to move on a NNW direction towards the coastal areas of Northeastern Taiwan…about 187 km ENE of Taitung, Taiwan [2PM Sept 30: 23.4°N 122.8°E @ 130kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Over the Eastern Coast of Zhejiang, China [outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)] as it turns N to NNE track, remains a Category 1 Typhoon…about 344 km N of Taipei, Taiwan [2PM Oct 01: 28.1°N 122.0°E @ 130kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 325 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 980 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 755 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 95 km from the center

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun September 29, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 19.7°N Lat 125.2°E Lon
Distance 1: 393 km E of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 2: 403 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 433 km ENE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 4: 471 km ENE of Tabuk City, Kalinga
Distance 5: 720 km NE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 23.4°N 122.8°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 28.1°N 122.0°E (TY)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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