Severe Tropical Storm MITAG (ONYOK) Update No. 03





Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Sunday, 29 September 2019
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday, 29 September 2019
Current Status and Outlook

MITAG (ONYOK) slows down and becomes a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it moved slightly westward across the northern part of the Philippine Sea during the past 12 hours…now posing a threat to Extreme Northern Luzon particularly the Batanes and Babuyan Island Group.

24-hr Outlook: STS MITAG (ONYOK) is forecast to turn northwestward across the North Philippine Sea and Bashi Channel, east of Batanes with a forward speed of 21 km/hr and could become a Typhoon (TY) late tonight or early Monday (Sept 30).

The western Trough of STS MITAG (ONYOK) is expected to bring isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with squalls (sudden gust of winds) across the Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas and Extreme Northern Luzon today.

Where is MITAG (ONYOK)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, September 29…2100 GMT. The center was located over the Southwesternmost part of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.3°N 127.0°E), about 512 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 757 km northeast of Metro Manila.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 95 kph near the center…Gustiness: 120 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 22 kph, towards the Eastern Part of Bashi Channel.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None. 
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy Rains (24-hr. Accumulation of 50 to 100 mm expected):
>> Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – Beginning Tonight until Monday (Sept 30).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon while passing east of the Batanes Group, starts to move on a NNW direction towards the offshore areas of Northeastern Taiwan…about 196 km ENE of Basco, Batanes [2AM Sept 30: 21.0°N 123.8°E @ 120kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Over the SW part of the East China Sea, outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), after grazing the Northeastern Coast of Taiwan on a northerly track, remains a Category 1 Typhoon…about 137 km NNE of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM Oct 01: 26.2°N 122.0°E @ 140kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 992 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 620 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 85 km from the center

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun September 29, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.3°N Lat 127.0°E Lon
Distance 1: 508 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 2: 562 km NNE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 566 km E of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 573 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 5: 577 km ESE of Basco, Batanes
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 21.0°N 123.8°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 26.2°N 122.0°E (TY)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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