Typhoon LINGLING (LIWAYWAY) Update No. 05





Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday, 04 September 2019
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday, 04 September 2019
Current Status and Outlook

LINGLING (LIWAYWAY) has strengthened into a Typhoon overnight as it moved slowly northeastward across the Bashi Channel. Its western rainbands has already left the Batanes and Babuyan Island Group.

24-hr Outlook: TY LINGLING (LIWAYWAY) is forecast to move north-northeastward across the eastern part of the East Taiwan Sea with a forward speed of 10 km/hr and will continue gaining strength, reaching wind speeds of about 145 km/hr by Thursday early morning (Sept 05).

This storm will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and bring cloudy skies with passing scattered to at times widespread rain showers and thunderstorms with squalls (sudden gust of winds) across Extreme Northern Luzon, and the Western Sections of Northern Luzon particularly Ilocos Provinces and the Batanes-Babuyan Island Group today.

Where is LINGLING (LIWAYWAY)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, September 04…2100 GMT. The eye was located over the northeasternmost part of the Bashi Channel (near 21.9°N 124.6°E), about 312 km east-northeast of Itbayat, Batanes or 458 km north-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 120 kph near the center…Gustiness: 150 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) Northeast @ 05 kph, towards the Eastern Part of the East Taiwan Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None. 
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Typhoon (Category 1) as it moves NNE-ward slowly across the easternmost part of the East Taiwan Sea…about 420 km E of Taitung, Taiwan [2AM Sept 05: 23.7°N 125.5°E @ 145kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to intensify as it passes in the vicinity of Miyakojima, turns back to a Northward track as it is about to exit the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 428 km E of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM Sept 06: 26.6°N 125.2°E @ 170kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Still intensifying, becomes a Category 3 Typhoon as it accelerates North to NNW-ward across the East China Sea, outside of PAR…about 471 km SE of Shanghai, China [2AM Sept 07: 32.3°N 124.5°E @ 155kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 980 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 485 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 95 km from the center.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed September 04, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 21.9°N Lat 124.6°E Lon
Distance 1: 371 km ESE of Taitung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 450 km E of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 3: 473 km ESE of Taichung, Taiwan
Distance 4: 501 km NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 896 km NNE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 23.7°N 125.5°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 26.6°N 125.2°E (TY)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 32.3°N 124.5°E (TY)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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