Severe Tropical Storm LINGLING (LIWAYWAY) Update No. 04





Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday, 03 September 2019
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday, 04 September 2019
Current Status and Outlook

LINGLING (LIWAYWAY) has intensified rapidly into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) during the past 12 hours, and could become a Typhoon later tonight as it tracks poleward in the general direction of the Yaeyama and Miyako Islands. Its western rainbands continues to spread across the Batanes and Babuyan Island Group.

24-hr Outlook: STS LINGLING (LIWAYWAY) is forecast to move north-northeastward across the eastern part of the East Taiwan Sea with a decreased forward speed of 10 km/hr and will continue gaining strength, reaching wind speeds of about 140 km/hr by Wednesday afternoon (Sept 04).

This storm will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and bring cloudy skies with passing scattered to at times widespread rain showers and thunderstorms with squalls (sudden gust of winds) across Extreme Northern Luzon, and the Western Sections of Northern and Central Luzon including Metro Manila tonight.

Where is LINGLING (LIWAYWAY)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, September 03…0900 GMT. The center was located over the easternmost part of the Bashi Channel (near 21.3°N 124.2°E), about 246 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes or 379 km northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 110 kph near the center…Gustiness: 140 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) North-Northeast @ 19 kph, towards the Eastern Part of the East Taiwan Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None. 
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Batanes & Babuyan Group of Islands – Tonight.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Typhoon (Category 1) as it moves NNE-ward slowly across the easternmost part of the East Taiwan Sea…about 420 km E of Taitung, Taiwan [2PM Sept 04: 23.0°N 125.2°E @ 140kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to intensify as it passes in the vicinity of Miyakojima, turns back to a Northward track as it is about to exit the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 428 km E of Taipei, Taiwan [2PM Sept 05: 24.8°N 125.8°E @ 165kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Still intensifying, becomes a Category 3 Typhoon as it accelerates North to NNW-ward across the East China Sea, outside of PAR…about 471 km SE of Shanghai, China [2PM Sept 06: 28.6°N 125.3°E @ 170kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 986 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 940 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 85 km from the center.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue September 03, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 21.3°N Lat 124.2°E Lon
Distance 1: 357 km ESE of Taitung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 423 km NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 428 km ESE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 4: 481 km SE of Taichung, Taiwan
Distance 5: 818 km NNE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 23.0°N 125.2°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 24.8°N 125.8°E (TY)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 28.6°N 125.3°E (TY)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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