Severe Tropical Storm BAILU (INENG) Final Update





Issued at: 11:00 PM PhT (15:00 GMT) Saturday, 24 August 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Severe Tropical Storm BAILU (INENG) is now outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moved rapidly northwestward across the Taiwan Strait…now approaching the easternmost part of Guangdong Province, China. This cyclone will make its second landfall just south of Xiamen City by early Sunday morning.

*This is the Final Update on this tropical cyclone.

24-hr Outlook: STS BAILU (INENG) is forecast to weaken rapidly as it moves west-northwestward across the rugged terrain of Southern China at a decreased forward speed of 21 km/hr. By tomorrow, Sunday evening, BAILU (INENG) will just be a decaying Tropical Depression (TD) moving  across the mountains of Northern Guangdong.

This storm will continue to enhance the Southwesterly Surface Windflow and bring occasional to widespread rain showers or severe thunderstorms across Western Luzon including Metro Manila and MiMaRoPa tonight. It will be more frequent along the coastal areas of Zambales and Bataan.

Where is BAILU (INENG)? As of 11:00 PM PhT today, August 24…1500 GMT. The center was located over the Southern part of Taiwan Strait (near 23.7°N 118.6°E), about 110 km south-southeast of Xiamen, China or 211 km northwest of Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 95 kph near the center…Gustiness: 120 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) Northwest @ 34 kph, towards Southern China.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY MORNING: Over Eastern Guangdong as it weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS)…about 132 km W of Xiamen, China [8AM Aug 25: 24.3°N 116.8°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SUNDAY EVENING: Weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD) while moving across the northern part of Guangdong Province, China…about 246 km N of Hong Kong, China [8PM Aug 25: 24.6°N 114.3°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 840 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 110 km from the center.

Additional Information Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Saturday August 24, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 23.7°N Lat 118.6°E Lon
Distance 1: 273 km SSW of Fuzhou, China
Distance 2: 335 km WSW of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 482 km ENE of Hong Kong, China
Distance 4: 569 km NNW of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 5: 1047 km NNW of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 24.6°N 114.3°E (TD)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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