Severe Tropical Storm BAILU (INENG) Update No. 06





Issued at: 5:45 PM PhT (09:45 GMT) Saturday, 24 August 2019
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Sunday, 25 August 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Severe Tropical Storm BAILU (INENG) has quickly jogged northwestward during the past 6 hours and made landfall over the southernmost part of Taiwan a few hours ago…now emerging along the coast of Kaohsiung City.  This cyclone will exit the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in the next few hours.

24-hr Outlook: STS BAILU (INENG) is forecast to weaken slightly while traversing the Taiwan Strait and will make its second landfall over Eastern Guangdong, China around sunrise tomorrow (Sunday). It is then expected to turn back to a west-northwest track at a decreased forward speed of 25 km/hr. Around tomorrow afternoon, BAILU (INENG) will start to rapidly weaken into a weak TS while traversing the rugged terrain of Northern Guangdong.

This storm will continue to enhance the Southwesterly Surface Windflow and bring occasional to widespread rain showers or severe thunderstorms across some parts of Luzon including Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, and Western Panay tonight. It will be more frequent along Ilocos Region, CAR, and Occidental Mindoro incl. Lubang and Calamian Group of Islands.

Where is BAILU (INENG)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, August 24…0900 GMT. The center was located over the Southwestern coast of Taiwan (near 22.6°N 120.2°E), about 11 km west-southwest of Kaohsiung, Taiwan or 451 km north of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) Northwest @ 28 kph, towards Southern China.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Batanes and Babuyan Island Group and Ilocos Norte – Tonight.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Bearing down the coast of Eastern Guangdong, China, prepares to make landfall as it weakens slightly…about 132 km S of Xiamen, China [2AM Aug 25: 23.3°N 118.0°E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a minimal Tropical Storm while moving across the northeastern part of Guangdong Province, China…about 262 km W of Xiamen, China [2PM Aug 25: 24.5°N 115.5°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 280 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 840 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 120 km from the center.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Saturday August 24, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 22.6°N Lat 120.2°E Lon
Distance 1: 179 km SSW of Taichung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 297 km SSE of Quanzhou, China
Distance 3: 387 km NNW of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 4: 302 km NW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 897 km N of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 24.5°N 115.5°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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