Tropical Storm BAILU (INENG) Update No. 03





Issued at: 5:45 PM PhT (09:45 GMT) Friday, 23 August 2019
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday, 24 August 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm BAILU (INENG) has been downgraded from a Severe Tropical Storm as it began to rapidly accelerate towards the Bashi Channel. Occasional rains with tropical storm force winds will be expected across Batanes and Babuyan Islands beginning tonight through Saturday.

24-hr Outlook: TS BAILU (INENG) is forecast to strengthen further, passing very close to Batanes Islands by tomorrow, Saturday morning. It is expected to make landfall over the Southernmost part of Taiwan by Saturday afternoon, while moving northwestward at an increased forward speed of 25 km/hr.

This storm may slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and bring occasional to widespread rain showers and thunderstorms across Luzon including Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, and Western Visayas today through the weekend.

Where is BAILU (INENG)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, August 23…0900 GMT. The center was located over the easternmost part of the Balintang Channel (near 19.4°N 124.5°E), about 286 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes or 649 km northeast of Metro Manila.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) Northwest @ 23 kph, towards Batanes-Southern Taiwan Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Batanes and Babuyan Island Group, Ilocos Provinces, Cagayan, Abra, and Apayao – beginning Today through Saturday (Aug 24).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
Batanes Island Group – beginning Saturday morning (Aug 24) until Saturday evening (Aug 24).

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Typhoon (TY) as it moves northwestward across the eastern part of the Bashi Channel…about 104 km E of Basco, Batanes [2AM Aug 24: 20.5°N 123.0°E @ 100kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Makes landfall over the Southernmost part of Taiwan, while gaining a little bit of strength…about 40 km SE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [2PM Aug 24: 22.4°N 120.6°E @ 110kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility while weakening slightly. Prepares to make landfall over Southern China…about 111 km S of Xiamen, China [2AM Aug 25: 23.5°N 118.3°E @ 100kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Makes landfall over Eastern Guangdong as it starts to move overland, weakens into a TS…about 242 km W of Xiamen, China [2PM Aug 25: 24.6°N 115.7°E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 745 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Friday August 23, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 19.4°N Lat 124.5°E Lon
Distance 1: 267 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 318 km E of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 3: 322 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 353 km NE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 5: 391 km NE of Tabuk City, Kalinga
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 22.4°N 120.6°E (STS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 24.6°N 115.7°E (STS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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