Severe Tropical Storm BAILU (INENG) Update No. 02





Issued at: 5:30 AM PhT (21:30 GMT) Friday, 23 August 2019
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday, 23 August 2019
Current Status and Outlook

BAILU (INENG) has strengthen into a Severe Tropical Storm as it moved barely northward during the past 12 hours across the Philippine Sea. This storm will bring stormy weather across Batanes and Babuyan Islands beginning tonight through Saturday.

24-hr Outlook: STS BAILU (INENG) is forecast to become a Typhoon (TY) by Saturday afternoon, with a turn to the northwest and will track across the eastern part of the Bashi Channel (just east of Batanes Group) at an increased forward speed of 27 km/hr.

This storm may slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and could bring occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Luzon and Western Visayas today through the weekend.

Where is BAILU (INENG)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, August 23…2100 GMT. The center was located over the northernmost part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 17.8°N 127.5°E), about 548 km east of Palanan, Isabela or 776 km east-northeast of Metro Manila.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 95 kph near the center…Gustiness: 120 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) North-Northwest @ 13 kph, towards Batanes-Southern Taiwan Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan Island Group – beginning Today through Saturday (Aug 24).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
Batanes Island Group – beginning Saturday morning (Aug 24) until Saturday evening (Aug 24).

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Typhoon (TY) as it moves northwestward across the eastern part of the Bashi Channel…about 134 km ENE of Basco, Batanes [2AM Aug 24: 20.9°N 123.2°E @ 120kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility while weakening into an STS. Prepares to make landfall over Southern China after passing Southern Taiwan, turns WNW-ward…about 122 km S of Xiamen, China [2AM Aug 25: 23.4°N 118.3°E @ 100kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 370 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 620 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Friday August 23, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 17.8°N Lat 127.5°E Lon
Distance 1: 570 km E of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 577 km NE of Bato, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 591 km NE of Caramoan, Camarines Sur
Distance 4: 612 km E of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 5: 615 km NE of Siruma, Camarines Sur
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.9°N 123.2°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 23.4°N 118.3°E (STS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



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