Tropical Storm BAILU (INENG) Update No. 01





Issued at: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thursday, 22 August 2019
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday, 23 August 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm BAILU (INENG) now threatens Extreme Northern Luzon as it continues to gain strength while moving slowly west-northwest across the Philippine Sea.  Its southwesternmost rainbands are currently spreading across Bicol Peninsula and Eastern Visayas.

24-hr Outlook: TS BAILU (INENG) is forecast to become a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) tomorrow, with a turn to the northwest across the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea at an increased forward speed of 19 km/hr.

This storm may slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and could bring occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Luzon and Western Visayas today through the weekend.

Where is BAILU (INENG)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, August 22…0900 GMT. The center was located over the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.7°N 128.2°E), about 664 km east of Casiguran, Aurora or 800 km east-northeast of Metro Manila.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 15 kph, towards Southwestern Part of the North Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan Island Group – beginning Friday (Aug 23) until Saturday (Aug 24).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
Batanes Island Group – beginning Saturday morning (Aug 24) until Saturday evening (Aug 24).

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it moves northwestward across the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 384 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM Aug 23: 19.3°N 125.7°E @ 110kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Typhoon (TY) prepares to make landfall over Southern Taiwan while passing just to the north of Batanes Group, turns WNW-ward…about 89 km SSE of Taitung, Taiwan [2PM Aug 24: 22.0°N 121.4°E @ 130kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Landfalling over Eastern Guangdong, China, weakens into an STS…about 218 km WSW of Xiamen, China [2PM Aug 25: 24.0°N 116.0°E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 765 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu August 22, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 16.7°N Lat 128.2°E Lon
Distance 1: 524 km NE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 567 km NE of Caramoan, Camarines Sur
Distance 3: 610 km NE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 4: 611 km NE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 5: 617 km NE of Tabaco City, Albay
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 19.3°N 125.7°E (STS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 22.0°N 121.4°E (TY)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 24.0°N 116.0°E (STS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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