TROPICAL STORM DANAS (FALCON) UPDATE NO. 10 [FINAL]
Issued at: 12:30 PM PhT (04:30 GMT) Thursday, 18 July 2019
|Current Status and Outlook||
Tropical Storm DANAS (FALCON) continues to move on a fast, northerly track as it passes over Yaeyama Island Group with no change in strength…will exit the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in the next couple of hours.
*This is Final Update on this tropical cyclone.
24-hr Outlook: TS DANAS (FALCON) is expected to slightly intensify and will move north-northeastward across the central part of the East China Sea at a forward speed of 30 km/hr by tomorrow, Friday morning (Jul 19).
Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 91W continues to organize and is likely to develop into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours. Its center was located over the northwestern border of the PAR line in Western Bashi Channel, or about 248 km west of Basco, Batanes (20.4N 119.6E). With maximum sustained winds of 35 km/hr near the center and was moving NNE slowly.
The combination of TS DANAS (FALCON), LPA 91W and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will bring occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Luzon and MiMaRoPa, becoming more frequent along Western Coast of Luzon and Mindoro today.
|Where is Danas (Falcon)?||As of 11:00 AM PhT today, July 18…0300 GMT. The center was located over Ishigaki-Jima, Yaeyama (near 23.9°N 124.1°E), about 286 km east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan or 417 km north-northeast of Itbayat, Batanes.|
|How strong is it?||
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.
|Past Movement (06 hrs)||North @ 32 kph, towards the Yaeyama-Miyako Group of Islands.|
|Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)||:: None.|
|What Philippine areas will be directly affected?||Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm expected):
>> Western Coastal Areas of Northern & Central Luzon incl. Mindoro – Today.
Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
|Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+||:: None.
+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates for more details.
|24-hour Forecast Outlook Summary**||
THURSDAY EVENING: Intensifies slightly as it maintains its fast, northward track across the southern part of the East China Sea…about 328 km NE of Taipei, Taiwan [8PM Jul 18: 26.9°N 124.1°E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
FRIDAY MORNING Maintains its strength as it turns more to the NNE while moving over the central part of the East China Sea…about 356 km ESE of Shanghai, China [8AM Jul 19: 29.5°N 124.6°E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.
**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
|Other Storm Info||> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 220 mm [Light to Heavy]
> Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 805 km (Medium)
> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
|Additional Information||Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu July 18, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 23.9°N Lat 124.1°E Lon
Distance 1: 349 km E of Taichung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 541 km ESE of Fuzhou, China
Distance 3: 576 km NNE of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 4: 635 km NNE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 5: 1085 km NNE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 29.5°N 124.6°E (TS)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines