Tropical Storm DANAS (FALCON) Update No. 09

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TROPICAL STORM DANAS (FALCON) UPDATE NO. 09

Issued at: 11:50 PM PhT (15:50 GMT) Wednesday, 17 July 2019
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Thursday, 18 July 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm DANAS (FALCON) has maintained its fast north-northeast track across the East Taiwan Sea with improving circulation…expected to move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow morning (Jul 18). 

24-hr Outlook: TS DANAS (FALCON) is expected to slightly intensify as it accelerates further northward at an increased forward speed of 33 km/hr across Yaeyama and Miyako Island Group tomorrow morning .

Meanwhile, a newly-formed Tropical Distrubance (LPA) 91W was spotted over the West Philippine Sea, about 351 km west of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur (17.3N 117.1E). This system has the potential of becoming a Tropical Cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours.

The combination of storm’s rainbands, LPA 91W and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will bring occasional rains and thunderstorms across Luzon and Visayas, becoming more frequent along Western Luzon, MiMaRoPa, Western Panay, and portions of Bicol Region tonight and tomorrow.

Where is Danas (Falcon)? As of 11:00 PM PhT today, July 17…1500 GMT. The center was located over the southeastern part of East Taiwan Sea (near 21.3°N 124.8°E), about 305 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes or 411 km east-northeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) North-Northeast @ 28 kph, towards the Yaeyama-Miyako Group of Islands.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm expected):
>> Western Coastal Areas of Northern & Central Luzon – Tonight until Tomorrow (Jul 18).


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

24-hour Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY MORNING: Intensifies slightly as it accelerates rapidly northward across the East Taiwan-Ryukyu Seas, passing over the Yaeyama-Miyako Island Group…about 364 km E of Taipei, Taiwan [8AM Jul 18: 24.4°N 125.1°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

THURSDAY EVENING Still moving northward across the East China Sea, outside of PAR…maintains its strength…about 439 km NE of Taipei, Taiwan [8PM Jul 18: 27.5°N 125.0°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 610 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Wed July 17, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 21.3°N Lat 124.8°E Lon
Distance 1: 418 km NE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 465 km NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 487 km ESE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 4: 521 km NE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 5: 846 km NNE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 27.5°N 125.0°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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TCWS by: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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