Tropical Storm DANAS (FALCON) Update No. 08

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TROPICAL STORM DANAS (FALCON) UPDATE NO. 08

Issued at: 6:15 PM PhT (10:15 GMT) Wednesday, 17 July 2019
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Thursday, 18 July 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm DANAS (FALCON) has rapidly accelerated towards the north-northeast, away from the Balintang Channel and is now heading in the general direction of Yaeyama-Miyako Islands.  Its rainbands continues to be displaced west and east of the center. 

24-hr Outlook: TS DANAS (FALCON) is expected to intensify as it accelerates further northward at an increased forward speed of 33 km/hr across the  sea east of Taiwan and will move out of the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow, Thursday morning (Jul 18), after passing between Yaeyama and Miyako Islands.

Meanwhile, the combination of storm’s rainbands, trough and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will bring occasional rains and thunderstorms across Luzon and Visayas, becoming more frequent along Western Luzon, MiMaRoPa, Western Panay, and portions of Bicol Region tonight.

Where is Danas (Falcon)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 17…0900 GMT. The center was located over the eastern part of the Bashi Channel (near 19.9°N 124.2°E), about 238 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes or 266 km northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) North-Northeast @ 26 kph, towards the Yaeyama-Miyako Group of Islands.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm expected):
>> Western Coastal Areas of Northern & Central Luzon – Tonight until Tomorrow (Jul 18).


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

24-hour Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies slightly as it accelerates rapidly northward across the East Taiwan-Ryukyu Seas, approaching the Yaeyama-Miyako Island Group…about 341 km NE of Itbayat, Batanes [2AM Jul 18: 22.6°N 124.5°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to intensify as it passes between the Yaeyama-Miyako Island Group and exits the northern border of the PAR…about 355 km ENE of Taipei, Taiwan [2PM Jul 18: 26.1°N 124.9°E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 330 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 830 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed July 17, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 19.9°N Lat 124.2°E Lon
Distance 1: 293 km ENE of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 2: 319 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 374 km NNE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 4: 385 km NE of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 5: 680 km NNE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 26.1°N 124.9°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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TCWS by: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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