Tropical Storm DANAS (FALCON) Update No. 07

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TROPICAL STORM DANAS (FALCON) UPDATE NO. 07

Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Wednesday, 17 July 2019
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday, 17 July 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm DANAS (FALCON) has started moving northward during the past 6 hours as its rainbands remain displaced to the west of its center…likely to pass just east of the Batanes Group later tonight.

24-hr Outlook: TS DANAS (FALCON) is expected to gain more strength as it accelerates northward at 22 km/hr across the eastern part of Bashi Channel tonight and will be passing just to the east of Taiwan by tomorrow morning (Jul 18).

Meanwhile, the combination of its Trough and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will bring occasional rains and thunderstorms across Luzon and Visayas, becoming more frequent along Western Luzon, MiMaRoPa, Western Panay, CaLaBaRZon, and portions of Bicol Region today through Thursday.

Where is Danas (Falcon)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, July 17…0300 GMT. The center was located over the southeastern part of the Balintang Channel (near 18.7°N 123.4°E), about 133 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 245 km southeast of Basco, Batanes.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) North @ 22 kph, towards the Bashi Channel-East Taiwan Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Western Coastal Areas of Northern & Central Luzon – Today until Thursday (Jul 18).


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

36-hour Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY EVENING: Intensifies slightly as it moves northward across the Eastern part of the Bashi Channel, passing just to the east of Batanes Group of Islands…about 102 km ESE of Basco, Batanes [8PM Jul 17: 20.1°N 122.9°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

THURSDAY MORNING: Continues to intensify as it accelerates Northward across the East Taiwan Sea, just to the east of Taiwan…about 163 km E of Taitung, Taiwan [8AM Jul 18: 22.8°N 122.7°E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

THURSDAY EVENING: Strengthens into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while heading north across the East China Sea, exits the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 157 km NE of Taipei, Taiwan [8PM Jul 18: 25.9°N 122.8°E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 940 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Wed July 17, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.7°N Lat 123.4°E Lon
Distance 1: 214 km NE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 2: 217 km NNE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 3: 189 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 262 km NE of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 5: 522 km NNE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 22.8°N 122.7°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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TCWS by: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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