Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 04W [EGAY] Final Update

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 04W [EGAY] UPDATE NO. 05 {FINAL}

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday, 01 July 2019
Current Status and Outlook

TD 04W (EGAY) has been downgraded into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) as its circulation becomes elongated and disorganized while accelerating closer to the Batanes Group of Islands.

*This is the Final Update on this weather system.

24-hr Outlook: LPA 04W (EGAY) is forecast to maintain its intensity, and will move west-northwestward at a decreased forward speed of 21 km/hr towards the Balintang and Bashi Channel Area. It will pass close to the Batanes Group later tonight.

The presence of LPA 04W (EGAY) and the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will continue to bring occasional rains and thunderstorms across Luzon and Visayas, becoming more frequent along the Western Sections including MiMaRoPa and Metro Manila today through the next 24 hours.

Where is LPA 04W (EGAY)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, July 01…2100 GMT. The center was located over the westernmost part of the North Philippine Sea (near 19.6°N 124.9°E), about 314 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 317 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center…Gustiness: 55 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) Northwest @ 26 kph, towards Batanes-Taiwan Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its strength while moving WNW across the eastern part of Bashi Channel…about 135 km East of Basco, Batanes [2PM Jul 01: 20.4°N 123.3°E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: About to exit the Northwestern Border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while heading WNW-ward towards Southern China…about 103 km NW of Itbayat, Batanes [2AM Jul 02: 21.4°N 121.1°E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 465 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon July 01, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 19.6°N Lat 124.9°E Lon
Distance 1: 361 km E of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 2: 369 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 401 km NE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 4: 439 km NE of Tabuk City, Kalinga
Distance 5: 692 km NE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 21.4°N 121.1°E (LPA)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

 

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