Tropical Depression 04W (EGAY) Update No. 04





Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday, 30 June 2019
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday, 01 July 2019
Current Status and Outlook

04W (EGAY) has rapidly accelerated west-northwestward during the past 12 hours and weakened into a Tropical Depression (TD) while over the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea.  The weakening of the system was due to strong upper-level winds (vertical wind shear) which has degraded the system’s circulation.

24-hr Outlook: TD 04W (EGAY) is forecast to maintain its intensity, and will resume moving northwestward at an increased forward speed of 27 km/hr towards the Balintang and Bashi Channel Area.

This storm is still far to directly affect any part of the Philippines, however, it will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) bringing occasional rains and thunderstorms across Luzon and Visayas, becoming more frequent along the Western Sections including MiMaRoPa and Metro Manila through Tuesday or Wednesday (Jul 02-03).

Where is 04W (EGAY)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, June 30…0900 GMT. The center was located over the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.9°N 127.8°E), about 624 km east of Casiguran, Aurora or 724 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 28 kph, towards Batanes-Taiwan Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its strength while resuming its northwestward track across eastern parts of Balintang and Bashi Channels…about 164 km ESE of Basco, Batanes [2PM Jul 01: 20.0°N 123.5°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Exits the Northwestern Border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it weakens further while heading west-northwestward towards Southern China…about 133 km WSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [2PM Jul 02: 22.0°N 119.2°E @ 45kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) as it makes landfall over Southern China, in the vicinity of Shantou City…about 231 km WSW of Xiamen, China [2PM Jul 03: 23.9°N 115.9°E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 320 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 615 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun June 30, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 16.9°N Lat 127.8°E Lon
Distance 1: 503 km NE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 545 km NE of Caramoan, Camarines Sur
Distance 3: 579 km NE of Siruma, Camarines Sur
Distance 4: 686 km ENE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 5: 766 km ENE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.0°N 123.5°E (TD)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 22.0°N 119.2°E (TD)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 23.9°N 115.9°E (LPA)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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