Tropical Storm 04W (EGAY) Update No. 03





Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday, 30 June 2019
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday, 30 June 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm 04W (EGAY) has maintained its strength during the past 12 hours while moving slowly northwestward  across the Central Philippine Sea.  Its overall structure has become slightly disorganized with its rainbands displaced west of its center. 

24-hr Outlook: TS 04W (EGAY) is forecast to slowly intensify, and will continue moving northwestward at an increased forward speed of 22 km/hr towards the North Philippine Sea.

This storm is still far to directly affect any part of the Philippines, however, it will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) bringing occasional rains and thunderstorms across Luzon and Visayas, becoming more frequent along the Western Sections including MiMaRoPa and Metro Manila through Tuesday or Wednesday (Jul 02-03).

Where is 04W (EGAY)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, June 30…2100 GMT. The center was located over the middle part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.6°N 130.2°E), about 683 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 933 km east of Baler, Aurora.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) Northwest @ 16 kph, towards Southwestern Part of the North Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies further as it maintains its northwestward track across the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 475 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela [2AM Jul 01: 18.2°N 126.7°E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while over the Bashi Channel, moving northwestward very close to the Batanes Group of Islands…about 45 km ENE of Itbayat, Batanes [2AM Jul 02: 21.0°N 122.2°E @ 100kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens slightly as it  bears down the coast of Southern China (outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility)…about 165 km S of Xiamen, China [2AM Jul 03: 23.0°N 118.2°E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 675 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun June 30, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 15.6°N Lat 130.2°E Lon
Distance 1: 670 km ENE of Bato, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 727 km ENE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 3: 747 km ENE of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 4: 786 km ENE of Naga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 988 km E of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 18.2°N 126.7°E (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 21.0°N 122.2°E (STS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 23.0°N 118.2°E (STS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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