Tropical Storm 04W Update No. 02

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TROPICAL STORM 04W UPDATE NO. 02

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday, 29 June 2019
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday, 30 June 2019
Current Status and Outlook

04W becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves slowly northwestward across the Central Philippine Sea with improved convective signature.

24-hr Outlook: TS 04W is forecast to intensify further, and will continue moving northwesward at an increased forward speed of 19 km/hr towards the North Philippine Sea.

This storm is still far to directly affect any part of the Philippines, however, it will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) bringing occasional rains and thunderstorms across Luzon and Visayas, becoming more frequent along the Western Sections including MiMaRoPa and Metro Manila today through early next week.

Where is 04W? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, June 29…0900 GMT. The center was located over the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 14.7°N 131.3°E), about 776 km east of Virac, Catanduanes or 1,058 km east of Baler, Aurora.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) Northwest @ 13 kph, towards Northern Part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies further as it maintains its northwestward track across the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 533 km NE of Pandan, Catanduanes [2PM Jun 30: 16.7°N 128.3°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while over the western part of the North Philippine Sea…about 255 km East of Basco, Batanes [2PM Jul 01: 20.0°N 124.4°E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens further as it passes just to the north of the Batanes Group of Islands, approaching the southeastern coast of Taiwan…about 113 km NNE of Itbayat, Batanes [2PM Jul 02: 21.7°N 122.3°E @ 100kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 280 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 460 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat June 29, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 14.7°N Lat 131.3°E Lon
Distance 1: 722 km ENE of Borongan City, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 762 km E of Bato, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 809 km E of Caramoan, Camarines Sur
Distance 4: 883 km E of Naga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 1102 km E of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 16.7°N 128.3°E (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.0°N 124.4°E (STS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 21.7°N 122.3°E (STS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

 

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