Tropical Depression 04W Update No. 01

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W UPDATE NO. 01

Issued at: 8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Saturday, 29 June 2019
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday, 29 June 2019
Current Status and Outlook

The small but active Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 95W east of Bicol Region has intensified into Tropical Depression (TD) 04W while over the Philippine Sea. This cyclone may pose a threat to Batanes Group of Islands early next week.

24-hr Outlook: TD 04W is forecast to intensify into a Tropical Storm (TS) by early tomorrow morning (Jun 30), and will move northwesward across the Central Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 15 km/hr.

This depression is still far to directly affect any part of the Philippines, however, it will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) bringing occasional rains and thunderstorms across Luzon and Visayas, becoming more frequent along the Western Sections including MiMaRoPa and Metro Manila today through early next week.

Where is 04W? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, June 29…2100 GMT. The center was located over the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.9°N 132.4°E), about 887 km east of Virac, Catanduanes or 946 km east of Legazpi City, Albay.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 14 kph, towards Northern Part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a TS as it moves northwestward across the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 674 km ENE of Bato, Catanduanes [2AM Jun 30: 15.7°N 130.2°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies further as it maintains its northwesterly track across the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 522 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela [2AM Jul 01: 18.4°N 127.1°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it passes just to the east of the Batanes Group of Islands…about 188 km East of Basco, Batanes [2AM Jul 02: 20.6°N 123.8°E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 310 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 595 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat June 29, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.9°N Lat 132.4°E Lon
Distance 1: 792 km ENE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 859 km ENE of Tacloban City, Leyte
Distance 3: 880 km ENE of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte
Distance 4: 896 km ENE of Baybay City, Leyte
Distance 5: 1244 km E of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 15.7°N 130.2°E (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 18.4°N 127.1°E (TS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.6°N 123.8°E (STS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

 

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