Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 03W [CHEDENG] Final Update

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 03W {CHEDENG} UPDATE NO. 06 [FINAL]

Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Monday, 18 March 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 03W (CHEDENG) has become disorganized and weakened into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) as it turns faster, west-southwestward across the South Philippine Sea.  Its remnant rainbands will bring widespread rains and thunderstorms across Mindanao through the next 24 hours. 

This is the Final Update on this weather system.

24-hr Outlook: Its remnants is forecast to weaken further as it moves westward at a forward speed of 24 km/hr. It will make landfall along the southernmost part of Davao Oriental by tomorrow, Tuesday early morning (Mar 19), and traverse the mountains of Central SOCCSKSARGEN. By tomorrow afternoon, the LPA will emerge over the Moro Gulf.

The combination of its rainbands, trough and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) is likely to bring cloudy skies with isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Northern and Eastern Luzon, Eastern Bicol, Visayas, and Mindanao beginning today through Tuesday.

Where is LPA 03W (CHEDENG)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, March 18…0900 GMT. The center was located over the southwestern part of the South Philippine Sea (near 6.6°N 127.9°E), about 187 km east-southeast of Mati City, Davao Oriental or 278 km east-southeast of Davao City, Davao Del Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center…Gustiness: 55 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Southwest @ 29 kph, towards Southern Mindanao.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  Along the Southernmost part of Davao Oriental (Southern Mati-General Generoso Area), between 12 to 2 AM local time tomorrow, Tuesday (Mar 19) – with Medium Strike Probability of 35-65%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> Eastern Mindanao, Caraga & Davao Regions – Today.


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Landfalling over the southermost part of Davao Oriental…about 56 km SSW of Mati City, Davao Oriental [2AM Mar 19: 6.5°N 126.0°E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Emerges over the Moro Gulf after traversing Central SOCCSKSARGEN, weakens further into a decaying LPA…about 103 km S of Pagadian City, Zamboanga Del Sur [2PM Mar 19: 6.6°N 123.3°E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 490 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon March 18, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 6.6°N Lat 127.9°E Lon
Distance 1: 253 km SE of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 2: 306 km E of General Santos City, South Cotabato
Distance 3: 332 km ESE of Valencia City, Bukidnon
Distance 4: 337 km E of Koronadal City, South Cotabato
Distance 5: 1159 km SE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 6.6°N 123.3°E (LPA)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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TCWS Graphics by: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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