Tropical Depression 03W (CHEDENG) Update No. 05

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (CHEDENG) UPDATE NO. 05

Issued at: 12:15 PM PhT (04:15 GMT) Monday, 18 March 2019
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday, 18 March 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 03W (CHEDENG) has rapidly accelerated westward across the South Philippine Sea in the general direction of the southern part of Davao Region.  Its rainbands has started to spread across Eastern Mindanao. 

24-hr Outlook: TD 03W (CHEDENG) is forecast to maintain its strength and movement across the western part of the South Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 21 km/hr. It shall make landfall along the southern part of Davao Oriental on Tuesday early morning (Mar 19), and weaken/decay into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) thereafter, as it traverses the southern part of Davao Del Sur and Central Soccsksargen by mid-day.  Its remnants will emerge over the Moro Gulf on Tuesday evening. 

The combination of its rainbands, trough and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) is likely to bring cloudy skies with isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Northern and Eastern Luzon, Eastern Bicol, Visayas, and Mindanao beginning today through Tuesday.

Where is 03W (CHEDENG)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, March 18…0300 GMT. The center was located over the mid-western part of the South Philippine Sea (near 7.0°N 129.4°E), about 348 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental or 438 km east of Davao City, Davao Del Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 34 kph, towards Southern Mindanao.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  Along the Southern part of Davao Oriental (Mati-General Generoso-San Isidro Area), between 3 to 4 AM local time tomorrow, Tuesday (Mar 19) – with Medium Strike Probability of 35-65%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> Eastern Mindanao, Caraga & Davao Regions – Today.


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY MORNING: Landfalling over the southern part of Davao Del Sur, weakens into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) after traversing initially the southern part of Davao Oriental…about 8 km SE of Digos City, Davao Davao Del Sur [8AM Mar 19: 6.7°N 125.4°E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

TUESDAY EVENING: Emerges over the Moro Gulf after traversing Central SOCCSKSARGEN, remains an LPA…about 95 km SSE of Zamboanga City, Zamboanga Del Sur [8PM Mar 19: 6.7°N 123.4°E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 180 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 440 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Mon March 18, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.0°N Lat 129.4°E Lon
Distance 1: 399 km E of Tagum City, Davao Del Norte
Distance 2: 427 km ESE of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 3: 476 km E of Valencia City, Bukidnon
Distance 4: 477 km ESE of Butuan City, Agusan Del Sur
Distance 5: 1240 km SE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 6.7°N 125.4°E (LPA)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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TCWS Graphics by: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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