Tropical Depression 03W (CHEDENG) Update No. 04

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (CHEDENG) UPDATE NO. 04

Issued at: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Monday, 18 March 2019
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Monday, 18 March 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 03W (CHEDENG) continues to track westward across the South Philippine Sea with no change in strength.  This system is expected to begin affecting Eastern Mindanao and Davao Region today.

24-hr Outlook: TD 03W (CHEDENG) is forecast to maintain its strength and move westward across the western part of the South Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 21 km/hr. It shall make landfall along the southern part of Davao Oriental on Tuesday morning (Mar 19), and weaken/decay into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) thereafter.

The combination of its rainbands, trough and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) is likely to bring cloudy skies with isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Northern and Eastern Luzon, Eastern Bicol, Visayas, and Mindanao beginning today through Tuesday.

Where is 03W (CHEDENG)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, March 18…2100 GMT. The center was located over the central part of the South Philippine Sea (near 7.3°N 131.2°E), about 548 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental or 634 km east of Davao City, Davao Del Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 18 kph, towards Southern Mindanao.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  Along the Southern part of Davao Oriental (Mati-San Isidro Area), between 6 to 8 AM local time on Tuesday, Mar 19 – with Low Strike Probability of <35%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> Eastern Mindanao & Davao Region – Today.


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Approaching the eastern coast of  Davao Oriental…continues to move generally westward across the western part of the South Philippine Sea…about 106 km E of Mati City, Davao Oriental [2AM Mar 19: 6.8°N 127.2°E @ 45kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Landfalling over the southern part of Davao Del Sur, weakens into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) after traversing initially the southern part of Davao Oriental…about 7 km NW of Digos City, Davao Del Sur [2PM Mar 19: 6.8°N 125.3°E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 520 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon March 18, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.3°N Lat 131.2°E Lon
Distance 1: 590 km E of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 2: 608 km E of Panabo City, Davao Del Norte
Distance 3: 649 km ESE of Butuan City, Agusan Del Norte
Distance 4: 758 km E of Valencia City, Bukidnon
Distance 5: 1370 km SE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 6.8°N 127.2°E (TD)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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TCWS by: DOST-PAGASA (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin)

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