Tropical Depression 03W (CHEDENG) Update No. 03





Issued at: 12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Sunday, 17 March 2019
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday, 18 March 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 03W (CHEDENG) has slightly accelerated as it traverses the South Philippine Sea with no change in strength.  This system is expected to begin affecting Eastern Mindanao and Davao Region later today.

24-hr Outlook: TD 03W (CHEDENG) is forecast to intensify briefly and move west-southwest to westward across the western part of the South Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 22 km/hr.

This depression is still far to directly affect any part of the Philippines within the next 24 hours.  Its trough together with the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) is likely to bring occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Northern and Eastern Luzon, Eastern Bicol, Visayas, and Mindanao beginning today, Monday (Mar 18).

Where is 03W (CHEDENG)? As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, March 17…1200 GMT. The center was located over the central part of the South Philippine Sea (near 7.3°N 132.2°E), about 251 km west of Koror, Republic of Palau or 744 km east of Davao City, Davao Del Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 20 kph, towards Southern Mindanao.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  Along the Southern part of Davao Oriental (Southern Mati-General Generoso Area), between 5 to 6 AM local time on Tuesday, Mar 19 – with Low Strike Probability of <35%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> Eastern Mindanao & Davao Region – beginning today, Monday (Mar 18).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY EVENING: Continues to move west-southwest to westward across the southwestern part of the South Philippine Sea…about 195 km E of Mati City, Davao Oriental [8PM Mar 18: 6.7°N 128.0°E @ 45kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

TUESDAY EVENING: Over Western Sultan Kudarat, weakens into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) after traversing the mountainous terrains of Davao Del Sur and Central SOCCSKSARGEN…about 47 km SSW of Cotabato City, Cotabato [8PM Mar 19: 6.8°N 124.1°E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 210 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sun March 17, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.3°N Lat 132.2°E Lon
Distance 1: 658 km E of Mati City, Davao Oriental
Distance 2: 694 km ESE of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 3: 719 km E of Panabo City, Davao Del Norte
Distance 4: 758 km E of Digos City, Davao Del Sur
Distance 5: 1460 km ESE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 6.7°N 128.0°E (TD)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 6.8°N 124.1°E (LPA)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Adonis S. Manzan and David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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