Tropical Depression 03W (CHEDENG) Update No. 01

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (CHEDENG) UPDATE NO. 01

Issued at: 1:30 PM PhT (05:30 GMT) Sunday, 17 March 2019
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday, 17 March 2019
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression (TD) 03W has entered the southeastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it accelerates westward, and will be named later by the country’s weather bureau as “CHEDENG”.  This system is expected to begin affecting Eastern Mindanao and Davao Region beginning tomorrow, Monday (Mar 18).

24-hr Outlook: TD 03W (CHEDENG) is forecast to intensify slowly and move west to west-southwest across the South Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 22 km/hr.

This depression is still far to directly affect any part of the Philippines within the next 1 to 2 days.  Its Trough together with the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) is likely to bring occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Eastern Luzon, Eastern Bicol, Visayas, and Mindanao beginning tomorrow, Monday (Mar 18).

Where is 03W (CHEDENG)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, March 17…0300 GMT. The center was located over the southeasternmost part of the South Philippine Sea (near 7.2°N 134.1°E), about 45 km east-northeast of Koror, Republic of Palau or 951 km east of Davao City, Davao Del Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 30 kph, towards Southeastern Mindanao.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  Along the Southern part of Davao Oriental (Southern Mati-General Generoso Area), between 2 to 3 AM local time on Tuesday, Mar 19 – with Low Strike Probability of <35%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> Eastern Mindanao & Davao Region – beginning Monday (Mar 18).


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY MORNING: Intensifies slightly as it moves west to west-southwestward across the southern part of the South Philippine Sea…about 415 km E of Mati City, Davao Oriental [8AM Mar 18: 6.7°N 130.0°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

TUESDAY MORNING: Starts losing strength as it makes landfall over Davao Occidental…about 35 km NNE of General Santos City, South Cotabato [8AM Mar 19: 6.4°N 125.3°E @ 45kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) as it moves across the southern coast of Basilan (BAR)…about 52 km S of Lamitan City, Basilan [8AM Mar 20: 6.2°N 122.2°E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 220 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 365 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun March 17, 2019
Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.2°N Lat 134.1°E Lon
Distance 1: 867 km E of Mati City, Davao Oriental
Distance 2: 899 km ESE of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 3: 928 km E of Panabo City, Davao Del Norte
Distance 4: 966 km ESE of Cabadbaran City, Agusan Del Norte
Distance 5: 1642 km ESE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 6.7°N 130.0°E (TD)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 6.4°N 125.3°E (TD)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 6.2°N 122.2°E (LPA)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

 

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