Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) Update No. 15





Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday, 29 December 2018
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday, 30 December 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) has slightly weakened after crossing Southern Masbate as it tracks west-northwest across the Sibuyan Sea. Its displaced, elongated rainbands has diminished considerably after dumping torrential rains across Bicol Region and the Southern Tagalog Provinces. However, isolated to scattered rain showers can still be expected along the forecast path of the depression.

24-hr Outlook: TD 35W (USMAN) is forecast to move west to west-southwestward across the western portion of Romblon tonight at an increased forward speed of 24 kph, and will traverse the southern part of Calamian Group of Islands by tomorrow morning (Dec 30).  It will slightly intensify upon emerging over the West Philippine Sea by tomorrow afternoon. 

This depression will continue to enhance the Strong Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring cloudy, cooler and windy conditions with occasional rain showers and some thunderstorms across Luzon, becoming more frequent along the northern and eastern sections of Bicol Region and Quezon.

Where is 35W (USMAN)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 29…0900 GMT. The center was located along the western coast of Masbate, or over the Sibuyan Sea (near 12.2°N 123.1°E), about 52 km west-southwest of Masbate City, Masbate or 100 km east-southeast of Romblon, Romblon.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 13 kph, towards Western Romblon and Calamian Group.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  Over the Southern part of Calamian Island Group, between 7 to 8 AM local time on Sunday, Dec 30 – with Medium Strike Probability of 50-65%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate, Heavy to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Northern Bicol; Portions of MiMaRoPa, CaLaBaRZon, & Metropolitan Manila – Tonight. 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea, after passing the southern part of Calamian Island Group, intensifies slightly…about 150 km N of Puerto Princesa, Palawan [2PM Dec 30: 11.3°N 118.6°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

MONDAY MORNING: Becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) as it exits the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while moving SW-ward across South China Sea…about 605 km WSW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 31: 8.9°N 113.4°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 345 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat December 29, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 12.2°N Lat 123.1°E Lon
Distance 1: 116 km SSW of Ligao City, Albay
Distance 2: 126 km SW of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 3: 133 km SW of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 4: 156 km S of Naga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 344 km SE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.3°N 118.6°E (TD)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 8.9°N 113.4°E (TS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 7.5°N 111.2°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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